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Net errors and omissions in balance of payments statistics
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Resumo(s)
This dissertation researches a discrepancy that is a part of the production of Balance of Payments statistics, i.e. Net Errors and Omissions. The possible causes, potential methods of detection and remedies are discussed. Statistical analysis is used to analyze time series data of most of the countries that adhere to the Special Data Dissemination Standard of the International Monetary Fund. The Net Errors and Omissions item is analyzed, both for randomness, systematic behavior, correlation with other Balance of Payments items, and other major economic variables. Revision histories of all the underlying items of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position are researched in search for clues of the most common caused for revisions. A survey among the compilers of Balance of Payments Accounts was conducted, asking for their opinions on the potential causes of, and remedies for Net Errors and Omissions. The main conclusions are; that there are cases where there are evidences of systematic behavior of the Net Errors and Omissions, which can indicate a potential for improvement. Financial Account items seem to be more subjected to revisions than those of the Current Account and Capital Account items. The compilers see counter accounting in the double-entry accounting system as the most likely source of errors, and exchanging information amongst themselves across borders as the best way of improving the accounts.
Descrição
Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Information Analysis and Management
Palavras-chave
Net Errors and Omissions Balance of Payments International Investment Position Revisions Discrepancies Causes of Errors Remedies Survey