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BNP Paribas: Equity Valuation
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Esta dissertação tem como objetivo determinar o valor intrínseco do capital próprio do BNP
Paribas e avaliar se as suas ações estão corretamente valorizadas pelo mercado. A avaliação
de empresas é uma ferramenta fundamental na tomada de decisões de investimento,
permitindo identificar oportunidades de valorização ou risco de sobreavaliação. A literatura
financeira reconhece a utilidade dos métodos baseados em fluxos de caixa descontados e da
análise por múltiplos na estimativa do valor de uma empresa. No entanto, a forma como estes
métodos refletem o verdadeiro valor de uma instituição bancária de grande escala, como o
BNP Paribas, num contexto de evolução regulatória e transformação digital, continua a
justificar investigação. A avaliação foi realizada com recurso a duas abordagens
complementares: o modelo de Fluxos de Caixa Livre para o Capital próprio (FCFE) e a avaliação
relativa com base em múltiplos de mercado. A análise considerou o período de 2020 a 2028,
abrangendo dados históricos e projeções futuras. Para o modelo dos fluxos de caixa, foram
formuladas premissas relativas ao crescimento do lucro líquido, investimento em ativos fixos
(CapEx), variações no capital circulante, amortizações, variações da divida líquida, custo do
capital próprio (Ke) e taxa de crescimento a longo prazo (g). Na avaliação relativa, foram
utilizados os rácios Preço-Lucro (PER) e o Preço-Valor Contabilístico (P/BV), com base numa
amostra de bancos europeus comparáveis, como o Crédito Agrícola, ING Group, BBVA e o
Banco Santander. Os dados foram extraídos da plataforma LSEG Eikon e dos relatórios anuais
dos bancos mencionados. Esta metodologia combinada permite captar tanto o valor
intrínseco da instituição como o seu posicionamento relativo no setor bancário europeu. Os
resultados obtidos indicam que o valor justo por ação do BNP Paribas, se situa acima do preço
de mercado registado a 31 de dezembro de 2024. Ambos os métodos apontam para uma
subavaliação, sugerindo uma margem de valorização atrativa para investidores orientados
para o valor. Conclui-se então, que as ações do BNP Paribas se encontram subavaliadas pelo
mercado, justificando uma recomendação de compra. A aplicação conjugada pelos diferentes
métodos permitiu uma análise abrangente, confirmando a consistência da recomendação de
investimento. Este estudo contribuiu para a literatura aplicada à avaliação de instituições
financeiras, demonstrando a relevância de utilizar metodologias mistas na identificação de
oportunidades de investimento em grandes grupos bancários. Investigações futuras poderão
aprofundar a análise da sensibilidade dos resultados com diferentes cenários
macroeconómicos ou incorporar variáveis ambientais, sociais e de governação (ESG) nos
modelos de avaliação.
This dissertation aims to determine the intrinsic value of BNP Paribas’ equity and assess whether its shares are fairly valued by the market. Business valuation is a fundamental tool in investment decision-making, as it enables the identification of appreciation opportunities or the risk of overvaluation. Financial literature recognizes the usefulness of discounted cash flow methods and multiple-based analysis in estimating a company’s value. However, how these methods reflect the true value of a large-scale baking institution such as BNP Paribas, in a context of regulatory evolution and digital transformation, remains a relevant subject of research. The valuation was carried out using two complementary approaches: the Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) model and relative valuation based on market multiples. The analysis covered the period from 2020 to 2028, encompassing both historical data and forward-looking projections. For the discounted cash flow model, assumptions were made regarding net income growth, capital expenditures (CapEx), changes in working capital, depreciation, cost of equity (Ke) and long-term growth rate (g). In the relative valuation, the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) and Price-to-Book Value (P/BV) ratios were used, based on a sample of comparable European banks such as Crédit Agricole, ING Group, BBVA, and Banco Santander. The data was sourced from the LSEG Eikon platform and BNP Paribas’ annual reports. This combined methodology captures both the intrinsic value of the institution and its relative position within the European banking sector. The results indicate that the estimated fair value per share of BNP Paribas is above its market price as of 31 December 2024. Both methods point to undervaluation, suggesting an attractive upside potential for value-oriented investors. It is therefore concluded that BNP Paribas shares are undervalued by the market, justifying a buy recommendation. The combined application of different methods enabled a comprehensive analysis, reinforcing the consistency of the investment recommendation. This study contributes to the applied literature on financial institution valuation, demonstrating the usefulness of mixed methodologies in identifying investment opportunities in large banking groups. Future research may explore the sensitivity of results under different macroeconomic scenarios or incorporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) variables into valuation models.
This dissertation aims to determine the intrinsic value of BNP Paribas’ equity and assess whether its shares are fairly valued by the market. Business valuation is a fundamental tool in investment decision-making, as it enables the identification of appreciation opportunities or the risk of overvaluation. Financial literature recognizes the usefulness of discounted cash flow methods and multiple-based analysis in estimating a company’s value. However, how these methods reflect the true value of a large-scale baking institution such as BNP Paribas, in a context of regulatory evolution and digital transformation, remains a relevant subject of research. The valuation was carried out using two complementary approaches: the Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) model and relative valuation based on market multiples. The analysis covered the period from 2020 to 2028, encompassing both historical data and forward-looking projections. For the discounted cash flow model, assumptions were made regarding net income growth, capital expenditures (CapEx), changes in working capital, depreciation, cost of equity (Ke) and long-term growth rate (g). In the relative valuation, the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) and Price-to-Book Value (P/BV) ratios were used, based on a sample of comparable European banks such as Crédit Agricole, ING Group, BBVA, and Banco Santander. The data was sourced from the LSEG Eikon platform and BNP Paribas’ annual reports. This combined methodology captures both the intrinsic value of the institution and its relative position within the European banking sector. The results indicate that the estimated fair value per share of BNP Paribas is above its market price as of 31 December 2024. Both methods point to undervaluation, suggesting an attractive upside potential for value-oriented investors. It is therefore concluded that BNP Paribas shares are undervalued by the market, justifying a buy recommendation. The combined application of different methods enabled a comprehensive analysis, reinforcing the consistency of the investment recommendation. This study contributes to the applied literature on financial institution valuation, demonstrating the usefulness of mixed methodologies in identifying investment opportunities in large banking groups. Future research may explore the sensitivity of results under different macroeconomic scenarios or incorporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) variables into valuation models.
Descrição
Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and Management
Palavras-chave
BNP Paribas Avaliação de empresas Instituições Financeiras Métodos de avaliação Capital próprio Fluxo de Caixa Livre para o Capital Próprio Múltiplos de Mercado Business Valuation Financial Institutions Valuation Methods Equity Valuation Free Cash Flow to Equity Market Multiple