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The Value of Public Procurement in Credit Risk Assessment: A Z-Score-Based Analysis of Financial Health in Portugal's Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Sector
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Autores
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
This study investigates the relationship between public procurement and the financial
performance of Portuguese companies that participated as providers of goods and services in
the healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors between 2022 and 2024. It shows that firms that
participate in public contracts exhibit higher credit risk compared to firms from the same
sectors not active in public contracts. Statistical and regression analyses reveal that, contrary
to expectations, public contract participation is associated with weaker financial indicators.
Larger companies with higher asset returns, but potentially more moderate liquidity and
solvency, are more frequently involved in public procurement. This pattern underscores the
strategic relevance of public contracts as a revenue stabilizing mechanism, particularly for
firms that combine scale with active market engagement. These findings contribute to a
deeper understanding of the financial implications of public procurement, offering insights for
both credit risk assessment and public policy.
Descrição
Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and Management
Palavras-chave
Credit Scoring Credit Risk Z-Score Public procurement Health Sector SDG 4 - Quality education SDG 8 - Decent work and economic growth SDG 10 - Reduced inequalities