Quantifying the impact of air pollution from coal-fired electricity generation on crop productivity in India

Abstract

Air pollution from coal electricity generation is a major driver of poor air quality in India and its effects on human health have been extensively studied. Despite considerable evidence that the same pollution also reduces crop productivity, we lack similar quantitative assessments of coal electricity's crop damages. Here, we estimate rice and wheat crop losses from coal generation's nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions using a regression model that combines station-level electricity generation and wind direction, satellite-measured NO2, and its association with crop productivity. Coal emissions impact yields up to 100 km away from power stations. In parts of West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh heavily exposed to coal-linked NO2, annual yield losses exceed 10%, equivalent to approximately 6 y worth of average annual yield growth in both rice and wheat in India between 2011 and 2020. While station-specific crop damages (value of lost output) are almost always lower than mortality damages (monetized value of annual premature PM2.5-related deaths), crop damage intensity (crop damage per GWh of electricity generated) is frequently higher than mortality damage intensity (mortality damage/GWh). Rice damage intensity exceeds mortality damage intensity at 58, and wheat damage intensity at 35 of the 144 power stations studied. The stations associated with the largest crop losses differ from those associated with the highest mortality. Co-optimizing for crop gains and mortality reduction slightly increases and meaningfully changes the distribution of social benefits from reducing emissions, highlighting the importance of considering crop losses alongside health impacts when regulating coal electricity emissions in India.