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Preços Muito Elevados dos Mercados de Energia: Análise, Fundamentos e Recomendações
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Os mercados de energia desempenham um papel central na economia global, já
que os preços elevados da energia tem o potencial de afetar todo um ecossistema
de um país. Estes preços elevados são cada vez mais frequentes nos mercados de
energia, o que gera um futuro economicamente incerto, neste momento sentem-se
as represálias e impactos da pandemia COVID-19 e invasão russa da Ucrânia. Estes
preços são originados devido a uma variedade de fatores, incluindo capacidade
limitada dos fornecedores de energia, aumento da procura dos consumidores,
aumento dos custos de produção e manipulação do mercado. Estudar e entender
estes fatores é perceber a raiz do problema.
Neste contexto, a presente dissertação tem como principais objetivos analisar
as variações de preços no mercado de energia elétrica, o que as causa, como
preveni-las e como responder para as amenizar.
Para melhor compreender o impacto no mercado de energia, foi efetuada a
análise de Portugal e com ajuda dos dados das plataformas do Mercado Ibérico
de Eletricidade (MIBEL), do Mercado Ibérico do Gás Natural (MIBGAS) e da base
de dados da Rede Elétrica Nacional (REN), conseguiu-se perceber como variam
os preços e as razões para as alterações. O motivo da comparação dos valores
de eletricidade com os valores do gás natural é devido a muitas vezes ser esta a
tecnologia marginal, como se confirmou nesta dissertação.
Para esse fim, dividiu-se em períodos relevantes, como a altura de pré-guerra
da Ucrânia, pós-guerra da Ucrânia e pós-implementação do Mecanismo Ibérico de
Limitação do Preço do Gás para Produção de Eletricidade, esta divisão é crucial
para a análise da reação e causa que separa cada um destes períodos, pois impõem
uma mudança severa no mercado em estudo, o MIBEL.
Energy markets play a central role in the global economy, as high energy prices have the potential to affect a country’s entire ecosystem. It is increasingly common for these prices in the energy markets to create an economically uncertain future, and at the moment we are feeling the reprisals and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These prices are caused by a variety of factors, including the limited capacity of energy suppliers, increased consumer demand, rising production costs and market manipulation. To study and understand these factors is to understand the root of the problem. In this context, the main objectives of this dissertation are to analyze price variations in the electricity market, what causes them, how to prevent them and how to respond to mitigate them. In order to better understand the impact on the energy market, Portugal was analyzed and, with the help of data from the MIBEL and MIBGAS platforms and the REN database, it was possible to understand how prices vary and the reasons for the changes. The reason for comparing electricity prices with natural gas prices is because natural gas is often the marginal technology, as confirmed in this dissertation. To this end, it has been divided into relevant periods, such as pre-Ukraine war, post-Ukraine war and post-implementation of the Iberian Mechanism for Limiting the Price of Gas for Electricity Production, this division is crucial for the analysis of the reaction and cause that separates each of these periods, as they impose a severe change on the market under study, the MIBEL.
Energy markets play a central role in the global economy, as high energy prices have the potential to affect a country’s entire ecosystem. It is increasingly common for these prices in the energy markets to create an economically uncertain future, and at the moment we are feeling the reprisals and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These prices are caused by a variety of factors, including the limited capacity of energy suppliers, increased consumer demand, rising production costs and market manipulation. To study and understand these factors is to understand the root of the problem. In this context, the main objectives of this dissertation are to analyze price variations in the electricity market, what causes them, how to prevent them and how to respond to mitigate them. In order to better understand the impact on the energy market, Portugal was analyzed and, with the help of data from the MIBEL and MIBGAS platforms and the REN database, it was possible to understand how prices vary and the reasons for the changes. The reason for comparing electricity prices with natural gas prices is because natural gas is often the marginal technology, as confirmed in this dissertation. To this end, it has been divided into relevant periods, such as pre-Ukraine war, post-Ukraine war and post-implementation of the Iberian Mechanism for Limiting the Price of Gas for Electricity Production, this division is crucial for the analysis of the reaction and cause that separates each of these periods, as they impose a severe change on the market under study, the MIBEL.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Mercados de Energia Elétrica Mercado Ibérico de Eletricidade Mercado Ibérico de Gás Evolução de Preços Consumos Tecnologia Marginal