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Newcomb-Benford Law in public procurement contracts
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Resumo(s)
This Master's thesis explores the application of the Newcomb-Benford Law in public procurement
contracts in Portugal, aiming to validate the alignment of contract values with the expected
distribution. The research involves a comprehensive analysis of public procurement data, visualizing
and exploring the distribution of observed leading digits against Benford's Law and validating the
distribution with statistical tests. The findings indicate an acceptable level of conformity with Benford's
distribution due to the values encountered by the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) across different
subsets of the dataset but also shed light on potential red flags in the procurement values due to the
non-conformity results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Chi-Square tests. The study emphasizes the
importance of using well-tested methods to identify anomalies in public procurement data without
explicitly implicating corruption. The research concludes by highlighting the need for further
investigation using more robust statistical methods and machine learning to enhance the validity of
the results.
Descrição
Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Information Management, specialization in Knowledge Management and Business Intelligence
Palavras-chave
Benford’s Law Public procurement Statistics Kolmogorov-Smirnov Chi-Square Benford’s distribution SDG 8 - Decent work and economic growth SDG 9 - Industry, innovation and infrastructure SDG 11 - Sustainable cities and communities