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Predictive Underwriting in Life Insurance Companies
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O desenvolvimento e o avanço tecnológico têm tido um impacto relevante na vida da população, nas
mais diversas áreas de interação, principalmente no que toca a atividades de proteção da vida da
população e de aforro de capitais. Cada vez mais a população se desprende dos métodos tradicionais
e dá preferência a novas técnicas, onde prevaleçam processos mais ágeis e capazes de dar resposta no
momento. Neste sentido, na atividade seguradora, torna-se imprescindível o acompanhamento desta
necessidade.
Atualmente, cerca de 50% da população portuguesa contratou um seguro de vida, quer sejam ligados
a fundos de investimentos, crédito à habitação ou não. Muitos estudos desenvolvidos nesta área,
demonstram que existem fatores determinantes na tomada de decisão para efetuar um seguro de
vida, tais como a nível demográfico, económico e institucional. Por este motivo, este projeto pretende
analisar, através da implementação de modelos preditivos, os principais fatores de risco que facilitem
o processo da tomada de decisão, quer na visão da entidade seguradora como do segurado, garantido
um processo de subscrição mais ágil, eficaz e confiável.
Assim, analisou-se modelos de Predictive Underwriting em produtos de vida risco. Para tal, foram
analisados os principais fatores de risco, através da aplicação de modelos preditivos na base de dados
de uma carteira de produtos de vida risco, com indicadores do presente e do passado, utilizando um
histórico de 2 anos fornecido pela entidade seguradora, onde se identificaram as variáveis de
subscrição mais correlacionadas e significantes. Este projeto realizou-se com o acompanhamento da
área técnica do negócio vida da companhia de Seguros Fidelidade, tento sido aplicado à sua carteira
de Vida Risco.
Ao longo deste projeto foi possível constatar que existem diversos fatores que são avaliados no
momento da subscrição de um seguro de vida que não acrescentam informação essencial à avaliação
de risco, assim como o reverso também acontece. Foram então identificados, dentro dos fatores
atualmente considerados, aqueles que maior impacto têm na aceitação do risco. Para além disso,
foram também sugeridos fatores determinantes de risco que não estavam a ser considerados. Através
do desenvolvimento e implementação deste modelo, pretende-se que o processo de subscrição seja
o mais assertivo possível contribuindo para uma redução do risco adquirido e com uma redução
considerável no tempo despendido para a avaliação do risco de cada cliente.
Technological development has a relevant impact on the lives of the population, in the most diverse areas of interaction, especially about life protection and capital savings activities, it is essential to keep up with this need of the population. Nowadays, the population is letting go the traditional methods and giving preference to new techniques, more agile processes prevail and can respond at the moment. Thus, it is essential that Insurance Activity follow this new demand of the population to benefit from faster and more efficient processes. Currently, about 50% of the Portuguese population has a life insurance, whether they are linked to investment funds or not. Many studies developed in this area show that there are determining factors in the decision to take out life insurance, such as demographic, economic, and institutional levels. For those reasons this project pretends analyze, with predictive models, the mains factors that facilitate the decision-making process by the insurance company, in order to evaluate the risk more quickly and efficiently. Thus, this project pretends to analyze a Predictive Underwriting model in life risk products. For this, the main risk factors will be analyzed, through present and past indicators, using a 2-year history provided by the insurance company, looking for the most correlated and significant underwriting variables. This project will be carried out with attendance from the life technical area at Fidelidade Insurance Company and applied to its life risk portfolio. Throughout this project, it was possible to see that exists several factors that are evaluated when taking out a life insurance policy, that do not add essential information to the risk assessment, as well as the reverse also occurs. Among the factors currently considered, those that have the greatest impact on risk acceptance were identified. Furthermore, it was also suggested other determining risk factors that were not being considered at the moment. Subsequently, through the development and implementation of this model, it is expected that the underwriting process will be as assertive as possible and with a considerable reduction in the time spent on risk assessment for each customer.
Technological development has a relevant impact on the lives of the population, in the most diverse areas of interaction, especially about life protection and capital savings activities, it is essential to keep up with this need of the population. Nowadays, the population is letting go the traditional methods and giving preference to new techniques, more agile processes prevail and can respond at the moment. Thus, it is essential that Insurance Activity follow this new demand of the population to benefit from faster and more efficient processes. Currently, about 50% of the Portuguese population has a life insurance, whether they are linked to investment funds or not. Many studies developed in this area show that there are determining factors in the decision to take out life insurance, such as demographic, economic, and institutional levels. For those reasons this project pretends analyze, with predictive models, the mains factors that facilitate the decision-making process by the insurance company, in order to evaluate the risk more quickly and efficiently. Thus, this project pretends to analyze a Predictive Underwriting model in life risk products. For this, the main risk factors will be analyzed, through present and past indicators, using a 2-year history provided by the insurance company, looking for the most correlated and significant underwriting variables. This project will be carried out with attendance from the life technical area at Fidelidade Insurance Company and applied to its life risk portfolio. Throughout this project, it was possible to see that exists several factors that are evaluated when taking out a life insurance policy, that do not add essential information to the risk assessment, as well as the reverse also occurs. Among the factors currently considered, those that have the greatest impact on risk acceptance were identified. Furthermore, it was also suggested other determining risk factors that were not being considered at the moment. Subsequently, through the development and implementation of this model, it is expected that the underwriting process will be as assertive as possible and with a considerable reduction in the time spent on risk assessment for each customer.
Descrição
Project Work presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and Management
Palavras-chave
Atividade Seguradora Seguros de Vida Subscrição Variáveis de Risco Insurance Activity Life Insurance Underwriting Predictive Underwriting Risk Variables