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Transmission rate of COVID-19 over time: the case of Lisboa e Vale do Tejo Region
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Given the pandemic the world is facing, trying to understand the new virus, SARS-CoV-2, and finding
ways to minimize the risks it represents is crucial for the proper functioning of countries all around the
globe. After months since the beginning of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, and with the
implementation of containment measures to try and slow down the spread of the virus, all the fields
of knowledge are still trying to understand the best strategies to deal with this problem. The focus of
this investigation is to study the transmission rate of the virus over time, in Lisboa e Vale do Tejo region,
since the first case was detected on March 3rd, 2020. The aim is to evaluate and compare the
transmission rate during three main periods – March 3rd to May 3rd; May 4th to August 31st; and from
September 1st to December 31st – given that different containment measures were applied according
to the epidemic scenario in each period, such as the implementation of the State of Emergency. To
achieve this goal, SEIR models were performed for the three periods of study, and the parameters,
such as the transmission rate and the recovery rate, were obtained by using Least Squares Estimation.
Descrição
Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Information Analysis and Management
Palavras-chave
COVID-19 SEIR models Transmission rate Lisboa e Vale do Tejo Least Squares Estimation