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Time series analysis on rate of malaria and typhoid fever: case study Nigeria (2003-2017)
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Resumo(s)
Malaria and typhoid fever are major causes of death in Sub-Saharan African countries. Due to the high
risk of these two diseases in Sub-Saharan African countries and Nigeria in particular, this dissertation
investigate the incidence of malaria and typhoid fever in Nigeria from January 2003 to December
2017 with the aim of identifying an appropriate statistical model that can be used to describe the trend
of malaria and typhoid fever and make future projections of the two diseases in Nigeria which will
serve as guide to policy makers in reducing the incidence of the two diseases.
Several statistical methods were used in this research work. The Least Square Estimation was used to
estimate the trend of both malaria and typhoid fever and the trend line equation obtained shows a
gradual downward trend movement for both diseases. Arima modeling was used to describe the
general behavior and pattern of occurrence of both diseases over the period under study and forecasts
of future occurrence were made. SARIMA model was identified as the appropriate model for both
malaria and typhoid fever. This result shows that the incidence of both diseases is influenced by
seasonal factor. High occurrence of both diseases is expected around May to August according to the
forecasts obtained in this study. The Chi-square test of association was used to ascertain if any form of
association exists between gender and the diseases and the result obtained shows that there is no
significant association between gender and the diseases. Correlation analysis conducted shows that
there is a strong relationship between the two diseases.
Descrição
Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Information Analysis and Management
Palavras-chave
Malaria Typhoid fever Diseases Probability ARIMA