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Acidentes de Trabalho: uma análise ao comportamento entre setores e à evolução anual dos custos
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Resumo(s)
Um dos maiores desafios do setor segurador é perceber quais as variáveis que melhor explicam os custos com sinistros para que os prémios possam ser ajustados, se necessário, e o rendimento da Companhia de Seguros seja o melhor possível. Como tal, pretende-se estudar se o custo médio de um sinistro é igual para os diversos setores de atividade, se tiveram as medidas tomadas relativamente à pandemia da doença COVID-19 impactado de alguma forma os custos médios de sinistros nos diferentes setores de atividade e quais os fatores que, de facto, influenciam o custo da empresa cliente para a Companhia. Quando deparados com esta problemática, serão empregues aos dados fornecidos métodos estatísticos que vão desde os testes de hipóteses aos modelos preditivos de regressão.
Os resultados obtidos mostram que, em geral, os custos médios com sinistros diferem entre setores de atividade e que nos anos de 2020 e 2021 os custos médios com sinistros foram superiores quando comparados com os anos anteriores. Conclui-se, ainda, que quando se analisa os custos médios dentro de cada setor, por ano, a maioria dos setores de atividade não apresentam diferenças entre os anos, sendo que apenas um deles apresenta claras diferenças entre os anos de 2020 e 2021 e os restantes.
One of the greatest challenges of the insurance sector is to understand the contribution of the different variables to the claims costs, so that premiums can be adjusted, if needed, and the Insurance Company’s income is the best possible. As such, the aim is to study whether the average cost of a claim is the same for the different sectors of activity, whether the measures taken in relation to COVID-19 disease pandemic had somehow impacted the average cost of claims in the different sectors of activity and which factors that, in fact, influence the cost of the client company to the Insurance Company. When faced with this problem, statistical methods will be used on data, ranging from hypothesis tests to predictive regression models. The obtained results show that, in general, the claims costs average differ between the different activity sectors and that in the years of 2020 and 2021 the average claim costs were higher when compared with the previous years. Also, it is possible to conclude that when analysing the average costs within each sector per year, most of the activity sectors do not show differences between the years, with only one of them presenting clear differences between the years 2020 and 2021 and the rest.
One of the greatest challenges of the insurance sector is to understand the contribution of the different variables to the claims costs, so that premiums can be adjusted, if needed, and the Insurance Company’s income is the best possible. As such, the aim is to study whether the average cost of a claim is the same for the different sectors of activity, whether the measures taken in relation to COVID-19 disease pandemic had somehow impacted the average cost of claims in the different sectors of activity and which factors that, in fact, influence the cost of the client company to the Insurance Company. When faced with this problem, statistical methods will be used on data, ranging from hypothesis tests to predictive regression models. The obtained results show that, in general, the claims costs average differ between the different activity sectors and that in the years of 2020 and 2021 the average claim costs were higher when compared with the previous years. Also, it is possible to conclude that when analysing the average costs within each sector per year, most of the activity sectors do not show differences between the years, with only one of them presenting clear differences between the years 2020 and 2021 and the rest.
Descrição
Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and Management
Palavras-chave
Seguro de Acidentes de Trabalho Custos com Sinistros Modelos Lineares Generalizados Worker´s Compensation Insurance Claims Costs Generalized Linear Models