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Analysis and simulation of social unrest in Europe: towards understanding social unrest in Europe
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| 3.31 MB | Adobe PDF |
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Protest in Europe where analyzed to foster an understanding of the distribution and
the behaviour of those during from 2000 to 2010 time frame.
The main object of this study is to discover if there is a relation between economic,
social and other variables available in Eurostat in order to discover a pattern in the
protests in Europe. For this purpose, least squared method and spatial point pattern
analysis method were applied in the R Software environment. The final output
indicates that variables can’t explain a cause-effect relation of protests due to tis
behaviour is complex and Europe is an inhomogeneous area. In the other hand, we
saw that protest tend to increase mostly when other protest have happened in the
past.
Protest location are scattered within the European megalopolis, and reveals attraction
to some capitals some hot spots patterns are observed. They are mostly located in
urban areas, close to the borders with other European countries. The resulting models
discovered that protest/events distributions do not imitate an inhomogeneous Poisson
process and thus we tried to model the behaviour describing special interaction
between locations of protests.
The best interaction model was chosen by computing different distances. We
analyzed the whole Europe area and due a strong influence of United Kingdom we
computed the same model to Germany, France, United Kingdom and Spain. Finally,
a step further spatial-temporal analysis was taken only for Spain.
This analysis is one of the first analyses set by the recently launched Global Database
of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT), a big free online data base of over 250m
events and 300 categories including riots and protests codified from world news
sources.
After this analysis we recommend, further analysis should contain models that apply
border contagion including time.
Descrição
Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies
Palavras-chave
Protest GDELT Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone Spatial Autoregressive model Spatial Point Pattern Analysis Spatial distribution pattern Spatstat