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The effects of Golden Visas on housing market prices: Applying a Synthetic control model to the portuguese market
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Autores
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Portugal contends with the controversial ramifications of its Golden Visa program on the dynamics of the housing market, especially since its establishment in 2012.The program's focal point lies in the substantial capital infusion into real estate, intensifying debates on its influence. This study employs a synthetic control method (SCM) to assess the impact of Portugal's Golden Visa program on the Housing Price Index (HPI). Our research constructs counterfactual scenarios for Portugal by leveraging SCM. The optimal weighted average of HPI values from other EU countries without Golden Visa programs serves as the basis for the counterfactual. Our findings indicate that, contrary to the concerns and debates surrounding the Golden Visa program, there is no statistically significant impact on Portugal's HPI from 2012 to 2021. Extending the analysis to other EU countries the Generalized Synthetic Control Method unveils nuanced insights, emphasizing the need for robust, complete datasets for accurate synthetic control construction. This study contributes to the growing literature on the causal effects of policy interventions by employing robust methodologies to address the complexities of economic impacts on housing markets.
Descrição
Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and Management
Palavras-chave
Synthetic Control Method House Price Index Golden Visas Counterfactual SDG 9 - Industry, innovation and infrastructure SDG 10 - Reduced inequalities SDG 11 - Sustainable cities and communities SDG 17 - Partnerships for the goals