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Urban Heat Island Response to Projected Land-Use Change and Surface Energy Balance Modifications in Chongqing City, China
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Resumo(s)
Urban heat island (UHI) effects are intensifying in rapidly urbanizing regions, with mid-latitude cities like Chongqing, China, increasingly affected. However, the combined future causal influence of land-use/land-cover change (LULCC) and surface energy balance on UHI dynamics in mountainous cities remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by integrating Landsat datasets and CMIP6 projections with extended convergent cross-mapping (ECCM) and extended geographical convergent cross-mapping (EGCCM) to investigate UHI evolution in Chongqing, China, from 1992 to 2062 under varying socioeconomic scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Our results demonstrate dramatic urban expansion, with built-up areas growing by 1399% (from 230 to 3447 km2) and corresponding UHI intensity increasing by 2.56 °C by 2022. Future projections indicate continued intensification, reaching 3.45 °C under SSP2-4.5 and 3.81 °C under SSP5-8.5 by 2062. Energy balance analysis revealed strong relationships between UHI and key surface fluxes, particularly net radiation (R2 = 0.88) and sensible heat (R2 = 0.85), while latent heat decreased by 22.7% (from 110 to 85 W/m2). Vegetated areas demonstrated significant cooling effects (R2 = 0.79), contrasting with impervious surfaces that enhanced radiative forcing. Causal analysis identified built-up areas (ρ > 0.75) and bare land (ρ ≈ 0.65) as primary UHI drivers, while forests mitigated heat accumulation (ρ ≈ −0.70). The study also revealed distinctive topographic influences, with valley-confined urban cores exhibiting 15–20% higher sensible heat fluxes compared to flat areas. This study advances UHI research in mountain cities by developing a transferable framework combining climate projections and causal analysis. The findings support climate-adaptive planning through nature-based solutions for global urban heat challenges.
Descrição
Yeboah, E., Wang, G., Cabral, P., Sarfo, I., Wei, X., Liu, H., Shao, Y., Amankwah, S. O. Y., Shwe, M. M., Iqbal, J., Jiang, S., & Oduro, C. (2025). Urban Heat Island Response to Projected Land-Use Change and Surface Energy Balance Modifications in Chongqing City, China. Journal of Geovisualization and Spatial Analysis, 9(2), Article 37. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41651-025-00238-z --- We express our gratitude to the School of Remote Sensing & Geomatics Engineering at NUIST, China, for supplying the necessary resources to achieve this academic milestone. We extend our heartfelt thanks to the editors and anonymous reviewers for their valuable and insightful comments. The authors would like to also express their gratitude to the Daniel Fiifi Tawia Hagan for providing valuable and insightful comments on the manuscript.
Palavras-chave
Urban heat island Land-use change Energy balance Causal inference CMIP6 China Geography, Planning and Development Computers in Earth Sciences Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) SDG 13 - Climate Action SDG 15 - Life on Land