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Modelo de Simulação da Transmissão da Dengue Baseado em Agentes
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Nos últimos anos o mosquito
Aedes Albopictus, também conhecido como mosquito-
-tigre-asiático, tem emergido como uma das espécies mais preocupantes na transmissão de
doenças vetoriais, como a dengue. Originalmente nativo do Sudeste Asiático, este mosquito
tem vindo a expandir-se globalmente e Portugal Continental, até então relativamente imune a
surtos de dengue, está agora sob o risco crescente. Este aumento surge devido à presença deste
vetor em algumas regiões do país, como Loulé, Penafiel e Lisboa, aliado ao aumento das
temperaturas e às alterações climáticas globais.
Quando estas epidemias surgem de facto, os sistemas de saúde ficam rapidamente
sobrecarregados e têm de desenvolver estratégias e tomar decisões sob pressão através de
fontes de informação insuficientes, isto porque se não houver ação imediata, estas epidemias
podem chegar a níveis desastrosos. Portanto é de interesse simular tais epidemias de modo a
adquirir uma ideia da sua propagação e assim formular medidas de prevenção.
Neste contexto, o trabalho proposto visa a criação de um simulador baseado em agentes
para modelar a possível expansão deste mosquito invasivo e a propagação da dengue em
Portugal Continental. O modelo foi implementado na plataforma GAMA e inclui as regras, as
características e os parâmetros que regem os comportamentos tanto dos mosquitos, quanto
dos seres humanos, deste modo é possível capturar as interações e dinâmicas que existem
entre estes agentes, no contexto geográfico e demográfico português, integrando também
fatores climáticos.
A utilização de uma abordagem de simulação e modelação baseada em agentes provou
ser bastante promissora, pois após terem sido validados por um especialista, os resultados
obtidos em cada cenário simulado permitiram observar fenómenos emergentes que estão de
acordo com a realidade.
In recent years the Aedes Albopictus mosquito, also known as the Asian tiger mosquito, has emerged as one of the most worrying species in the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as dengue. Originally native to Southeast Asia, this mosquito has been expanding globally and mainland Portugal, which until then relatively immune to dengue outbreaks, is now at increasing risk. This increase is due to the presence of this vector in some regions of the country, such as Loulé, Penafiel and Lisbon, coupled with rising temperatures and global climate change. When these epidemics do break out, health systems are quickly overwhelmed and have to develop strategies and make decisions under pressure through insufficient sources of information, because if there is no immediate action, these epidemics can reach disastrous levels. It is therefore of interest to simulate such epidemics in order to gain an idea of their spread and thus formulate preventive measures. In this context, the proposed work aims to create an agent-based simulator to model the possible expansion of this invasive mosquito and the spread of dengue in mainland Portugal. The model was implemented on the GAMA platform and includes the rules, characteristics and parameters that govern the behaviour of both mosquitoes and humans in order to capture the interactions and dynamics that exist between these agents, in the Portuguese geographical and demographic context, also integrating climatic factors. The use of an agent-based simulation and modelling approach proved to be very promising, because after being validated by an expert, the results obtained in each simulated scenario made it possible to observe emerging phenomena that are in accordance with reality.
In recent years the Aedes Albopictus mosquito, also known as the Asian tiger mosquito, has emerged as one of the most worrying species in the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as dengue. Originally native to Southeast Asia, this mosquito has been expanding globally and mainland Portugal, which until then relatively immune to dengue outbreaks, is now at increasing risk. This increase is due to the presence of this vector in some regions of the country, such as Loulé, Penafiel and Lisbon, coupled with rising temperatures and global climate change. When these epidemics do break out, health systems are quickly overwhelmed and have to develop strategies and make decisions under pressure through insufficient sources of information, because if there is no immediate action, these epidemics can reach disastrous levels. It is therefore of interest to simulate such epidemics in order to gain an idea of their spread and thus formulate preventive measures. In this context, the proposed work aims to create an agent-based simulator to model the possible expansion of this invasive mosquito and the spread of dengue in mainland Portugal. The model was implemented on the GAMA platform and includes the rules, characteristics and parameters that govern the behaviour of both mosquitoes and humans in order to capture the interactions and dynamics that exist between these agents, in the Portuguese geographical and demographic context, also integrating climatic factors. The use of an agent-based simulation and modelling approach proved to be very promising, because after being validated by an expert, the results obtained in each simulated scenario made it possible to observe emerging phenomena that are in accordance with reality.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Modelo Baseado em Agentes Simulação baseada em agentes Transmissão de Dengue GAMA Aedes Albopictus Epidemiologia