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Scenario planning for the 2035 cruise industry: a blue ocean strategy to create new market space
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| 1.32 MB | Adobe PDF |
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Although the cruise industry has experienced high growth in recent years, consumer segmentation and industry concentration suggest that the long tail of the market may be underserved. Cruise lines can respond by driving business model innovation via Blue Ocean Strategy to identify white space market opportunities and create value innovation. The long-term strategic cycle of the cruise industry can be accommodated by envisioning contrasting future scenarios in which present-day business decisions will be executed. This work generates actionable options that cruise lines may adopt to maintain steady growth through 2035 via scenario planning and option planning. The business model of a mass market cruise line is first mapped in a causality tree and a value cycle to visualize key performance indicators across financial, customer, internal and learning objectives. Qualitative market research is subsequently conducted through interviews with industry experts and consumers to define consumer personas, identify impactful macro-trends and evaluate customer satisfaction. Next, morphological vectors of macro-trends are arranged to construct plausible and consistent future scenarios with narratives, implications and warning signals. Finally, a set of portfolio options is created using the Four Actions Framework and Strategy Canvas to explore business model innovation via customer impact, value proposition impact and cost impact.
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Cruise industry Business modeling Market research Scenario planning Option planning