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Effects of terrorism on tourism demand: Local projections approach
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Resumo(s)
This research aims to analyze how the tourism sector reacts to events of terrorism, which have intensified over the last few years all over the world. The objective is to evaluate whether terrorist attacks lead to a tourist behavioral change with regard to decision making on the travel destination; specifically, it is intended to verify if terrorist attacks influence the tourism of the targeted countries and whether tourists choose to travel to competing tourist destinations of the affected country, which, in most cases, presents an image of security and stability. This study is based on the application of the Local Projections approach, which estimated the effects triggered in country's tourism demand for unexpected terrorism actions, during the period between 1995 and 2017 for a sample of 36 countries. Our empirical findings show that terrorist attacks have a severely negative and short-lasting effect on the tourism of the target country. To complement, it was proved that incidents claimed by terrorist organizations guided by Islam have a higher impact on tourism. It was also concluded that tourists opt to substitute the affected destination by their competing countries; in particular, terrorism in a tourist destination contributes to increasing the tourism demand of its competing countries, having a long-lasting effect. Several security, marketing, and economic policies have been proposed and discussed in the paper.
Descrição
Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Information Analysis and Management
Palavras-chave
Terrorism Tourism Tourist Decision Behavior Competing Tourist Destinations Local Projections