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Macroeconomic effects of public investment in EMDEs

2026-02-22Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorAdarov, Amat
dc.contributor.authorClements, Benedict
dc.contributor.authorJalles, João Tovar
dc.contributor.institutionNOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE)
dc.contributor.pblBlackwell Publishing Ltd
dc.date.accessioned2026-04-06T13:53:01Z
dc.date.available2026-04-06T13:53:01Z
dc.date.issued2026-02-22
dc.descriptionPublisher Copyright: © 2026 The Author(s). Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics published by Oxford University and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
dc.description.abstractThe paper examines the macroeconomic effects of public investment in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). To this end the analysis develops a new measure of public investment shocks based on cyclically adjusted government investment. Estimations using local projections based on a sample of 129 countries over the period 1980–2019 suggest that public investment can significantly boost economic growth, crowd in private investment, and increase productivity and potential output. Estimates suggest that an increase in public investment by 1% of GDP raises real output by 1.1% after 5 years, on average. However, the effects are much larger when public investment spending is efficient and fiscal space is ample—reaching up to 1.6% over the same period. Public investment multipliers tend to be larger during recessions and in capital scarce economies.en
dc.description.versionpublishersversion
dc.description.versioninpress
dc.format.extent743568
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/obes.70058
dc.identifier.issn0305-9049
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 159054088
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: cbf73ad4-a5c9-4768-b3f0-eede578797c4
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 105032832755
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 001722504800001
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/202046
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105032832755
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.subjectFiscal multipliers
dc.subjectGross fixed capital formation
dc.subjectLocal projections
dc.subjectPublic investment
dc.subjectStatistics and Probability
dc.subjectSocial Sciences (miscellaneous)
dc.subjectEconomics and Econometrics
dc.subjectStatistics, Probability and Uncertainty
dc.subjectSDG 8 - Decent Work and Economic Growth
dc.titleMacroeconomic effects of public investment in EMDEsen
dc.title.subtitleNonlinear effects of the business cycle, fiscal space, capital stock and efficiencyen
dc.typejournal article
degois.publication.titleOxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
dspace.entity.typePublication
rcaap.rightsopenAccess

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