A carregar...
Publicação
The Impact of Immigration on Housing Prices: An Interpretable Machine Learning Approach
| Nome: | Descrição: | Tamanho: | Formato: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.28 MB | Adobe PDF |
Resumo(s)
This study aims to examine the relationship between immigration and housing prices in the
Lisbon Metropolitan Area, adopting a time-series approach to identify and explain the key
drivers of price variation. Using open data from 2008 to 2023, the analysis models the median
housing prices per municipality as the target variable and incorporates a wide range of
economic and demographic predictors. A literature review was conducted to contextualize
housing market dynamics and guide the selection of relevant explanatory analysis, including
the selection of lagged versions of certain predictors to capture delayed effects and a more
realistic reflection of how changes in fundamentals may take time to impact housing prices.
The results highlight that foreign residents play a meaningful role in shaping housing prices in
the LMA. During the test period, from 2022 to 2023, in 14 of the municipalities under study,
at least one immigration related variable ranked among the top three most impactful
predictors. However, other structural changes, such as banking evaluations and construction
costs, proved to be even more influential, ranking in the top two predictors in 10
municipalities and taking top position in 15. Unemployment rates, interest rates, and
population density also contributed to price variation in some municipalities. Moreover, 10
out of the 12 municipalities where linear models were the best-performing models,
immigration from EU-28 countries exerted a stronger positive influence on housing prices than
immigration from non-EU countries.
Descrição
Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Science and Advanced Analytics, specialization in Business Analytics
Palavras-chave
Housing Prices Immigration Lisbon Metropolitan Area Machine Learning Time-Series analysis Urban Economics SDG 8 - Decent work and economic growth SDG 10 - Reduced inequalities SDG 11 - Sustainable cities and communities SDG 17 - Partnerships for the goals