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Viticultural Suitability under Climate Change in the Luxembourg Moselle Wine Region: A Geospatial Analysis Approach
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Viticulture is highly sensitive to environmental conditions such as climate, topography, and soil, making the assessment of present and future suitability increasingly important under climate change. This study applies a geospatial framework combining Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and multi-criteria decision analysis to assess viticultural suitability in the Luxembourg Moselle wine region. Suitability was modelled using a Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) approach integrating climatic, topographic, and edaphic variables. The climatic component was represented by the Huglin Index (HI), derived from an ensemble of five CMIP6 Global Climate Models for a baseline period (1970–2000) and a mid-century scenario (2041–2060, SSP2-4.5). Spatial patterns of change were evaluated using suitability maps, difference analysis, and transition matrices, complemented by sensitivity analysis and an assessment of environmental characteristics associated with suitability transitions. Results indicate a high degree of spatial stability, with approximately 93% of the study area maintaining the same suitability class under future conditions. Observed changes are limited and mainly occur in transitional zones, reflecting a moderate shift from higher to intermediate suitability classes rather than a large-scale spatial redistribution. Areas exhibiting suitability decrease are consistently associated with lower Huglin Index values, highlighting the dominant role of thermal conditions in driving suitability dynamics. Overall, the findings suggest that projected climate change is likely to result in gradual adjustments in suitability intensity rather than major spatial reconfiguration. The study also highlights the influence of methodological assumptions in GIS-based suitability modelling, emphasizing that results should be interpreted as relative and comparative rather than predictive.
Descrição
Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Geographic Information Systems and Science, specialization in Geographic Information Systems and Science
Palavras-chave
Geospatial Intelligence Viticultural suitability GIS–MCDA Climate change Luxembourg Moselle wine region