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Spatial-temporal crop yield analysis in East Kalimantan, Indonesia : spatial disaggregation of crop yield data and estimation of future production
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Resumo(s)
As the largest agricultural country in South East Asia, Indonesia possesses enormous
agriculture resources. In the last decade, the Government of Indonesia has focused on the
production development of 4F crops, meaning crops for the production of Food, Feed,
Fiber, and Fuel. In 2014, Indonesia had about 101 million hectares agricultural land which
comprised of approximately 47 million hectares cultivated area and the remaining 54
million hectares were expandable agriculture lands. However, the expansion has to
consider Indonesia Law No. 44 in Year 2009 (Undang – Undang No 4 Tahun 2009)
regarding the security of sustainable food cropland that restricts the conversion of food
cropland into timber forest, industry or settlements. In fact, unwanted land use land cover
(LULC) change happened due to the excessive expansion of oil palm, rubber, pulpwood
and mining industries particularly in East Kalimantan. Two districts that exhibit significant
LULC change are Kutai Barat and Mahakam Ulu. An additional 78.5 thousand ha of
rubber, 31 thousand ha of oil palm and 23.6 thousand ha of pulpwood plantations have
dominated the LULC change in Kutai Barat and Mahakam Ulu districts from 1990 to 2009.
Although in general, the agricultural expansion has become the main cause of unwanted
LULC change and forest cover loss, these have also contributed to positive economic
benefit. In order to evaluate the economic benefit of historic agricultural expansion as well
as to estimate the economic benefit of future agricultural expansion, it is necessary to look
thoroughly at the geographic distribution of crop yields within the districts because we
would like to understand the crop yield for every agriculture production area. The issue on
the existing crop statistic data is that the crop statistics are conveyed as tabular-based data
and reported at the national, provincial or district level of detail. Thus, examining crop
distribution in district level is certainly challenging. Hence, a spatial crop yield allocation
model was applied to generate pixel-level crop yield representation of Kutai Barat and
Mahakam Ulu districts in 2000 and 2009 based upon available the regional crop statistics
data and the existing LULC maps and further analyze its spatial-temporal pattern within
this period of time. Furthermore, an evaluation of crop yield production and the agriculture
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expansion trend from 2000 to 2009 were applied to a 2030 land use projection from a land
use change model to project the pixel level crop yield in 2030. Between 2000 and 2009,
rubber plantation exhibits land expansion and followed by the increase of yield. While the
expansion of oil palm in 2009 is followed by the degradation of yield. We presume this
due to the oil palm plantation in 2009 is still in early harvesting stage. The accuracy of
disaggregation model is highly depending on the quality of data particularly crop statistic
data and LULC map. The deviation between these two data leads to the occurrence of a
high error in disaggregation results. By estimating oil palm and rubber yield based on
projected LULC maps in 2030, the future expansion is suggested to follow the Limited
Unrestricted scenario since this scenario is able to provide highest average yield with
relatively small area among other scenarios. In this manner, either government or people
in Kutai Barat and Mahakam Ulu are able to gain optimal agricultural benefit without
sacrificing an excessive number of land resources.
Descrição
Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies
Palavras-chave
Crop yield Agriculture expansion Oil palm Rubber Spatial production