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Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis

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dc.contributor.authorVarela, Danilson Mascarenhas
dc.contributor.authorRomeiras, Maria M.
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Luís
dc.contributor.institutionNOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE)
dc.contributor.pblFrontiers Media
dc.date.accessioned2023-11-20T22:10:13Z
dc.date.available2023-11-20T22:10:13Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.descriptionFunding Information: Special thanks to Silvia Catarino and Lara Dutra Silva for all their support in modelling. The authors thank the herbarium curator (Maria Cristina Duarte, FCUL) of the LISC Herbarium (IICT/ULisboa). We thank to Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) and Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) under the project CVAgrobiodiversity. Also to the research unit UID/AGR/04129/2020 (LEAF) and CIBIO-Açores funded by Portuguese National Funds through FCT, Portugal. Funding Information: Special thanks to Silvia Catarino and Lara Dutra Silva for all their support in modelling. The authors thank the herbarium curator (Maria Cristina Duarte, FCUL) of the LISC Herbarium (IICT/ULisboa). We thank to Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) and Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) under the project CVAgrobiodiversity. Also to the research unit UID/AGR/04129/2020 (LEAF) and CIBIO-Açores funded by Portuguese National Funds through FCT, Portugal. Funding Information: This research was funded by the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) and Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) through the project CVAgrobiodiversity/333111699. DV was supported by FCT grant (SFRH/BD/135354/2017). Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2023 Varela, Romeiras and Silva.
dc.description.abstractClimate change poses one of the most significant challenges to conserve biodiversity, especially in tropical dry islands, as is the case of Cabo Verde (northeast Atlantic Ocean). This archipelago has a low percentage of forest cover and hosts only seven native tree species, among them, Faidherbia albida (Delile) A.Chev. (Fabaceae). Therefore, protective afforestation is extremely important in Cabo Verde, one of the most vulnerable West African countries to climate change. With this work, we aimed to estimate the current distribution and potential shifts in suitable areas for F. albida under climate change, using species distribution models (i.e., random forest, generalized linear and additive models), covering its distribution range in Cabo Verde and mainland Africa. The best model was then projected for the studied area, at two different slice times, using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Based on current bioclimatic variables, we estimated that almost two thirds of Cabo Verde’s territory is highly suitable for F. albida, which contrasts with its current occurrence. By overlaying the present habitat suitability with land use and land cover data, we concluded that habitat availability and suitability could be constrained by that factor. On average, the predicted suitable habitat for future distributions gradually decreases by 2080 under both scenarios compared with the current, with a smaller effect of RCP4.5 than of RCP8.5. Local authorities can benefit from this research and develop actions to promote sustainable reforestation in Cabo Verde, which should include native tree species that are best adapted to the local climate and could thus contribute to mitigate the effects of climate change.en
dc.description.versionpublished
dc.format.extent2953267
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fevo.2023.1057852
dc.identifier.issn2296-701X
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 64223776
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 40d37452-b129-49ee-ab4d-e843a53949ab
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 85151939130
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/160191
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85151939130
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.subjectCabo Verde
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjecthabitat suitability
dc.subjectnative tree species
dc.subjectspecies distribution models
dc.subjecttropical dry islands
dc.subjectWest Africa
dc.subjectEcology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
dc.subjectEcology
dc.subjectSDG 13 - Climate Action
dc.subjectSDG 15 - Life on Land
dc.titlePresent and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysisen
dc.typejournal article
degois.publication.titleFrontiers in Ecology and Evolution
degois.publication.volume11
dspace.entity.typePublication
rcaap.rightsopenAccess

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