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The impacts of weather anomalies on international tourism demand

2026-07Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorPandit, Dhruv Akshay
dc.contributor.authorNeto, Miguel de Castro
dc.contributor.authorRodrigues, Paulo M. M.
dc.contributor.institutionInformation Management Research Center (MagIC) - NOVA Information Management School
dc.contributor.institutionNOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS)
dc.contributor.institutionNOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE)
dc.contributor.pblBanco de Portugal
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-23T10:14:01Z
dc.date.available2026-07-23T10:14:01Z
dc.date.issued2026-07
dc.descriptionPandit, D. A., Neto, M. D. C., & Rodrigues, P. M. M. (2026). The impacts of weather anomalies on international tourism demand. Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, 12(3), 81-105. https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/documents/2026-07/RE202611_EN.pdf
dc.description.abstractInternational tourism demand is sensitive to short-run weather, yet the high-frequency margin remains less studied than the long-run climate-change literature, a gap that matters for tourism dependent economies. Using a monthly panel of overnight stays for 51 origin countries and five Portuguese NUTS II regions over 2007-2019, we estimate fixed-effects panel models exploiting within-pair variation in realised destination weather, controlling for relative prices and persistent demand dynamics. Weather acts primarily through lagged volatility rather than contemporaneous average anomalies. A one-unit increase in intra-month temperature variability is associated with a cumulative decline of approximately 5.7% in overnight stays over a seven month window; compound temperature-precipitation volatility delivers a further cumulative decline of approximately 2.1%. Average anomalies, relative origin-destination weather, and origin-country anomalies provide weaker and less systematic evidence. The findings indicate that short-run tourism demand responds to the instability of destination weather rather than to average deviations, with implications for tourism forecasting and climate-risk management in tourism-dependent economies.en
dc.description.versionpublishersversion
dc.description.versionpublishersversion
dc.description.versionpublished
dc.format.extent25
dc.format.extent2052592
dc.format.extent2052295
dc.identifier.issn2183-5217
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 169315868
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 8afb9ade-0dc0-4fe5-b63f-e1793ccba5f5
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-7265-3890/work/221638947
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/204764
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/documents/2026-07/RE202611_EN.pdf
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/documents/2026-07/RE202611_PT.pdf
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/documents/2026-07/ree_vol12n3_en.pdf
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/documents/2026-07/ree_vol12_n3_pt.pdf
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.subjectSDG 13 - Climate Action
dc.titleThe impacts of weather anomalies on international tourism demanden
dc.typejournal article
degois.publication.firstPage81
degois.publication.issue3
degois.publication.lastPage105
degois.publication.titleBanco de Portugal Economic Studies
degois.publication.volume12
dspace.entity.typePublication
rcaap.rightsopenAccess

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NIMS: MagIC - Artigos em revista nacional com arbitragem científica (Peer-Review articles in national journals)