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Publicação
The impacts of weather anomalies on international tourism demand
| Nome: | Descrição: | Tamanho: | Formato: | |
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| 1.96 MB | Adobe PDF | |||
| 1.96 MB | Adobe PDF |
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
International tourism demand is sensitive to short-run weather, yet the high-frequency margin remains less studied than the long-run climate-change literature, a gap that matters for tourism dependent economies. Using a monthly panel of overnight stays for 51 origin countries and five Portuguese NUTS II regions over 2007-2019, we estimate fixed-effects panel models exploiting within-pair variation in realised destination weather, controlling for relative prices and persistent demand dynamics. Weather acts primarily through lagged volatility rather than contemporaneous average anomalies. A one-unit increase in intra-month temperature variability is associated with a cumulative decline of approximately 5.7% in overnight stays over a seven month window; compound temperature-precipitation volatility delivers a further cumulative decline of approximately 2.1%. Average anomalies, relative origin-destination weather, and origin-country anomalies provide weaker and less systematic evidence. The findings indicate that short-run tourism demand responds to the instability of destination weather rather than to average deviations, with implications for tourism forecasting and climate-risk management in tourism-dependent economies.
Descrição
Pandit, D. A., Neto, M. D. C., & Rodrigues, P. M. M. (2026). The impacts of weather anomalies on international tourism demand. Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, 12(3), 81-105. https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/documents/2026-07/RE202611_EN.pdf
Palavras-chave
SDG 13 - Climate Action