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Predicting Individual Guarantee based on Energy Consumption
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Towards having a successful business, a company must be compliant with all legal and regulatory demands, namely liabilities and obligations payment. The non-fulfilment of these rules can severely harm an entity, either in its finances and reputation or even in its business performance. Hence, EDP Comercial wants to comply with regulation and ensure that the Individual Guarantee liability is covered. Since this responsibility is secured trough a bank guarantee and changing it requires a long process with higher management's consent there is a need to determine the likely amount required ahead of time. The Individual Guarantee is based on the agent’s client’s energy consumption thus, in order to determine its future value will be we need to predict energy consumption.
Several models were used to try and predict energy consumption. Prophet was the time-series forecasting model that best addressed our problem. Trough the described approach we found that the guarantee in place is enough to be compliant with the regulations for, at least, the next three months and so, no action is needed in what concerns the Individual Guarantee. In addition to answering the research question, with this project we also delivered the tools to measure and control this liability progression over time. The project was appreciated and well received by the company which already has in sight its application to other markets.
Descrição
Internship Report presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Science and Advanced Analytics, specialization in Business Analytics
Palavras-chave
Energy Consumption Time series forecasting Prophet