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Análise das trajetórias de descarbonização do setor da construção e o impacto do CBAM - Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
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Resumo(s)
A crescente ambição climática da União Europeia (UE), trouxe novos desafios para
setores intensivos em emissões de gases com efeito de estufa (GEE). O Mecanismo de
Ajustamento Carbónico Fronteiriço (CBAM) surge como um instrumento destinado a mitigar
a fuga de carbono e a promover a concorrência justa entre produtores europeus e países
terceiros. No entanto, o impacto do CBAM sobre o setor da construção em Portugal,
parcialmente dependente da importação de materiais como o ferro, o aço e o cimento, ainda
não se encontra devidamente avaliado.
A construção depende de subsetores (cimento e aço) com uma elevada intensidade
carbónica, sendo assim essenciais para a transição climática. Com a introdução do CBAM,
espera-se que os custos associados aos materiais de construção importados aumentem,
afetando a competitividade das empresas e a estrutura de custos das obras públicas e
privadas. Analisar o impacto deste mecanismo é, portanto, fundamental para compreender
como o setor português pode conciliar a sustentabilidade ambiental e a viabilidade económica
num contexto regulatório em rápida transformação.
O estudo desenvolveu uma análise quantitativa dos impactos do CBAM sobre os
materiais de construção importados por Portugal (cimento e ferro/aço), considerando
diferentes cenários de preço. Foram avaliados os efeitos económicos (variação nos custos de
importação) e ambientais (redução de emissões incorporadas), bem como as implicações para
empresas de diferentes dimensões. O trabalho apoiou-se em dados da UE, dados de emissões
e em literatura sobre a descarbonização no setor da construção.
Os resultados mostram que o CBAM terá impactos económicos moderados, mas
relevantes, podendo atingir um valor de certificados a pagar de 10,12 milhões de euros por
ano, num cenário que considera o último preço registado no CELE, e de 13,01 milhões de
euros no cenário de preço CBAM mais elevado. As micro e pequenas empresas de construção
revelam maior vulnerabilidade, podendo atingir preços de 11 e 1,5 milhões de euros,
respetivamente, enquanto as médias e grandes empresas dispõem de maior capacidade de
adaptação. Verifica-se ainda que o mecanismo pode estimular a inovação tecnológica, a
adoção de materiais com menor pegada carbónica e o reforço da competitividade do setor.
The European Union's (EU) growing climate ambition has brought new challenges for sectors that are heavy emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG). The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a tool designed to reduce carbon leakage and promote fair competition between European producers and third countries. However, the impact of CBAM on the construction sector in Portugal, which is partially dependent on imports of materials such as iron, steel, and cement, has not yet been properly assessed. Construction depends on subsectors (cement and steel) with a high carbon intensity, which are therefore essential for the climate transition. With the introduction of the CBAM, the costs associated with imported construction materials are expected to increase, affecting the competitiveness of companies and the cost structure of public and private works. Analysing the impact of this mechanism is therefore essential to understand how the Portuguese sector can reconcile environmental sustainability and economic viability in a rapidly changing regulatory context. The study developed a quantitative analysis of the impacts of CBAM on construction materials imported by Portugal (cement and iron/steel), considering different price scenarios. The economic effects (variation in import costs) and environmental effects (reduction in embedded emissions) were assessed, as well as the implications for companies of different sizes. The work was based on EU data, emissions data, and literature on decarbonization in the construction sector. The results show that the CBAM will have moderate but significant economic impacts, with prices of CBAM certificates reaching €10,12 million per year in a scenario that considers the last price recorded in EU ETS, and €13,01 million in the highest CBAM price scenario. Micro and small construction companies are more vulnerable, with CBAM prices reaching €11 million and €1,5 million, respectively, while medium and large companies have greater capacity to adapt. It is also found that the mechanism can stimulate technological innovation, the adoption of materials with a lower carbon footprint, and the strengthening of the sector's competitiveness.
The European Union's (EU) growing climate ambition has brought new challenges for sectors that are heavy emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG). The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a tool designed to reduce carbon leakage and promote fair competition between European producers and third countries. However, the impact of CBAM on the construction sector in Portugal, which is partially dependent on imports of materials such as iron, steel, and cement, has not yet been properly assessed. Construction depends on subsectors (cement and steel) with a high carbon intensity, which are therefore essential for the climate transition. With the introduction of the CBAM, the costs associated with imported construction materials are expected to increase, affecting the competitiveness of companies and the cost structure of public and private works. Analysing the impact of this mechanism is therefore essential to understand how the Portuguese sector can reconcile environmental sustainability and economic viability in a rapidly changing regulatory context. The study developed a quantitative analysis of the impacts of CBAM on construction materials imported by Portugal (cement and iron/steel), considering different price scenarios. The economic effects (variation in import costs) and environmental effects (reduction in embedded emissions) were assessed, as well as the implications for companies of different sizes. The work was based on EU data, emissions data, and literature on decarbonization in the construction sector. The results show that the CBAM will have moderate but significant economic impacts, with prices of CBAM certificates reaching €10,12 million per year in a scenario that considers the last price recorded in EU ETS, and €13,01 million in the highest CBAM price scenario. Micro and small construction companies are more vulnerable, with CBAM prices reaching €11 million and €1,5 million, respectively, while medium and large companies have greater capacity to adapt. It is also found that the mechanism can stimulate technological innovation, the adoption of materials with a lower carbon footprint, and the strengthening of the sector's competitiveness.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Construção Descarbonização Emissões incorporadas Cimento Ferro