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- The Carnation Revolution and economic crisisPublication . Amaral, Luciano; Marques, Bruno Lopes; Pereira dos Santos, João; NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE); Elsevier Science Publisher B.V.On 25 April 1974, the “Carnation Revolution” toppled Western Europe's oldest dictatorship, Portugal's Estado Novo. Political instability ensued, leading to a wage explosion, expropriations, and the collapse of an empire that brought back half a million repatriates. As a result, the Portuguese economy slowed from the high growth it had experienced in the 1950s and ’60s. However, disentangling the effects of the revolution from those of the broader international crisis of the 1970s is challenging. To address this, we apply the synthetic control method and find that the Carnation Revolution, along with the ensuing instability, caused a negative structural break that persistently reduced GDP per capita. By 1976, GDP per capita was almost 15% lower than the counterfactual estimate. This coincided with a decline in the investment-to-employment ratio and higher current account deficits than those observed in comparable countries.
- Serial entrepreneurs and the macroeconomyPublication . De Vera, Micole; Félix, Sónia; Karmakar, Sudipto; Sedláček, Petr; NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE); Springer VerlagEntrepreneurship is crucial for job creation and economic growth. But not all entrepreneurs are alike. For instance, firms of serial entrepreneurs — owners of multiple businesses — have been documented to outperform other businesses. In this paper, we provide novel evidence showing that firms of serial entrepreneurs are also important for macroeconomic outcomes. Using unique administrative data from Portugal, we document that serial entrepreneur firms (i) disproportionately contribute to aggregate job creation and productivity growth, (ii) help shape aggregate business dynamism, and (iii) are more likely to be high-growth (“gazelles”). This superior performance is largely driven by entrepreneurs’ education, ability, past managerial experience, and lower indebtedness of their firms. We discuss the implications of our findings for macroeconomic models — which typically ignore serial entrepreneurs.
- Determinants of catastrophic healthcare spending in Portugal (2005–2022)Publication . Tao, Tzi Kieu; Barros, Pedro Pita; NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE); Elsevier Science Publisher B.V.The study analyses the extent, evolution and impoverishing effects of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) in Portugal from 2005 to 2022. The analysis also identifies factors associated with the occurrence of CHE. The results show a progressive reduction in financial burden with increased access to healthcare services. CHE incidence decreased from 9.42% (2005) to 5.04% (2022). Reduced access to the Portuguese NHS was associated to increased reliance on private services and out-of-pocket costs. Barriers, unmet needs and challenges regarding the protection of vulnerable groups remain, including the elderly and individuals incapacitated to work. Households with at least one senior show a particular vulnerability to CHE. Regional disparities are reinforced by underdeveloped healthcare infrastructure, limited access and financial barriers.
- Cross-sectional error dependence in panel quantile regressionsPublication . Demetrescu, Matei; Hosseinkouchack, Mehdi; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.; NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE)This paper shows that cross-sectional dependence (CSD) is an indicator of misspecification in panel QR rather than just a nuisance that may be accounted for with panel-robust standard errors. This motivates the development of a novel test for panel QR misspecification based on detecting CSD. The test possesses a standard normal limiting distribution under joint N, T asymptotics with restrictions on the relative rate at which N and T go to infinity. A finite-sample correction improves the applicability of the test for panels with larger N. An empirical application illustrates the use of the proposed cross-sectional dependence test.
- The (non-)Keynesian effects of fiscal austerityPublication . Afonso, António; Alves, José; Jalles, João Tovar; NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE); ElsevierWe empirically assess whether the negative response of private consumption and private investment to fiscal consolidation usually expected is reversed. We focus on a sample of 174 countries between 1970 and 2018 to determine episodes of fiscal consolidations using three alternative measures of the cyclically adjusted primary balance: (1) an International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Economic Outlook (WEO) based measure, (2) a Hodrick-Prescott–based measure, and (3) a measure based on Hamilton (2018). We find that, first, increases in government consumption have a Keynesian effect on real per capita private consumption; second, tax increases have a positive effect on private consumption when a fiscal consolidation occurs; and, third, fiscal contraction has a crowding-in effect on private investment. Moreover, expansionary fiscal consolidations occur in highly indebted advanced economies, in particular, after an increase in taxes. We conclude that the negative effects of taxation on private consumption are larger when developing economies are experiencing a financial crisis and are not consolidating.
- The impact of the financial education of executives on the financial practices of medium and large enterprisesPublication . Custódio, Cláudia; Mendes, Diogo; Metzger, Daniel; NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE); WileyWe study the impact of an MBA-style executive education course in finance on corporate policies and firm performance targeting top managers of medium and large Mozambican enterprises. Using a randomized controlled trial, we find that the educational treatment induces changes in financial policies that improve firm performance. Specifically, a reduction in working capital (0.4 to 0.5 standard deviations) increases cash flow, and in turn long-term investments. This effect operates primarily through a reduction in accounts receivable (0.4 to 1 standard deviations). Our findings show that targeted educational interventions can build managerial capital and enhance corporate performance by improving financial decision making among executives.
- The value of leaders we trust and leaders who make us strongerPublication . Bibic, Kira; Frenzel, Svenja B.; Kerschreiter, Rudolf; Wilson-Lemoine, Jeremy; Steffens, Niklas; Haslam, S. Alexander; Monzani, Lucas; Akfirat, Serap Arslan; Ballada, Christine Joy A.; Bazarov, Tahir; Aruta, John Jamir Benzon R.; Avanzi, Lorenzo; Bunjak, Aldijana; Černe, Matej; Edelmann, Charlotte M.; Epitropaki, Olga; Fransen, Katrien; García-Ael, Cristina; Giessner, Steffen; Gleibs, Ilka H.; Godlewska-Werner, Dorota; Kark, Ronit; Laguia Gonzalez, Ana; Lam, Hodar; Lupina-Wegener, Anna; Markovits, Yannis; Maskor, Mazlan; Molero Alonso, Fernando Jorge; Moriano Leon, Juan A.; Neves, Pedro; Pauknerová, Daniela; Retowski, Sylwiusz; Roland-Lévy, Christine; Samekin, Adil; Schuh, Sebastian; Sekiguchi, Tomoki; Song, Lynda Jiwen; Story, Joana; Stouten, Jeroen; Sultanova, Liliya; Tatachari, Srinivasan; van Bunderen, Lisanne; Van Dijk, Dina; Wong, Sut I.; Zhang, Xin‘an; van Dick, Rolf; NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE); SAGE PublicationsThis study investigates the critical role of social identity in leadership, specifically examining identity leadership (IL) and the unique contributions of its four subdimensions: identity prototypicality, identity advancement, identity entrepreneurship, and identity impresarioship. To date, research has largely focused on the global construct of identity leadership and shown that in organizational contexts, it is a predictor of a range of outcomes, including group members’ burnout and organizational citizenship. However, the distinct roles of the four subdimensions remain little understood. Extending earlier findings, we address this gap by testing the hypothesis that the four subdimensions are differentially implicated in two key mechanisms that underlie the relationship between IL and group outcomes: (a) trust in the leader and (b) team identification. The present study explores this proposition by using structural equation modeling with latent factors to test a mediation model in 2020–2021 data from the Global Identity Leadership Development project (GILD; N = 7,855). As hypothesized, we found that identity prototypicality and identity advancement predominantly predicted greater trust in the leader, whereas identity entrepreneurship primarily predicted greater team identification. Contrary to our hypothesis, identity impresarioship showed a negative relation with trust. In turn, both trust in the leader and team identification were positively associated with organizational citizenship behavior (OCB), and negatively with burnout. We conclude by reflecting on the implications of these findings for both the theory and practice of leadership.
- Does the information content and value relevance of trade debt in early-stage firms help in raising external equity?Publication . Barbosa, Luís; Cowling, Marc; Gulamhussen, M. A.; NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE); Springer VerlagWe assess the information content and value relevance of trade debt for external equity providers deploying the Kauffman Survey Data on early-stage firms. Our findings indicate that trade debt attracts external equity by virtue of its information content and determines its amount by virtue of its value relevance in unprofitable but growing firms. These findings remain robust after controlling for nonfinancial information on firms and their owners, macroeconomic conditions, and tests of reverse causality. The findings persist for firms that are labor-intensive, use simple technologies, and recur to high levels of trade debt. Our findings highlight critical links between debt and equity markets in early-stage firms, and the need to factor the signaling earnings potential (information content), and the relation between book and market estimates (value relevance), when it comes to assessing and valuing early-stage firms. We detail the academic, practice, and policy implications of these findings.
- Community-based interventions to improve the health of migrant children in high-income countriesPublication . Di Fabrizio, Carolina; Gonçalves, Judite; Martins, Maria do Rosário O.; NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE); Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical (IHMT); ElsevierBackground: Migrant children, including those exposed to migration in utero, face structural barriers to health and social inclusion in high-income countries (HICs). Despite their heightened vulnerability, evidence on effective interventions to improve their health remains limited. Objective: To synthesise experimental and quasi-experimental evidence on community-based interventions aiming to improve health outcomes for migrant children in HICs. Methods: We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, Maternity & Infant Care Database, Global Health, and EconLit from inception to June 2025. Eligible studies evaluated interventions targeting migrant children—including those exposed during gestation—in HICs, used experimental or quasi-experimental designs, and reported any health-related outcome. Studies were excluded if they focused on narrow migrant populations (e.g. refugees), specific interventions (e.g. vaccination), institutional settings, or interventions not adapted for migrants. A narrative synthesis was conducted, supported by harvest plots to aid visualisation. Risk of bias was assessed using ROBINS-I and RoB 2 tools. The review was registered in PROSPERO (registration number blinded for review). Results: Twenty-six studies met inclusion criteria. Eight evaluated large-scale Medicaid health coverage expansions, eight assessed local school-based interventions, and ten focused on other community-based interventions—two national programmes in Sweden and Denmark, and eight local initiatives across Europe and the US. Health coverage expansions improved access to prenatal and child healthcare and, in some cases, birth outcomes. Evidence on interventions addressing behaviours, obesity, and mental health was limited or mixed, often due to small samples and short follow-up. Conclusion: Coverage expansions improve migrant child health. Scalable, tailored interventions with longer follow-up are needed.
- Environmental offsettingPublication . Vaz, João; Coria, Jessica; Inkinen, Ville; NOVA School of Business and Economics (NOVA SBE); ElsevierThis paper examines offset method decisions under the US wetland mitigation program and compares the cost effectiveness of prescriptive on-site and market-based off-site approaches. By measuring costs through land values and benefits through flood control values, we highlight a clear trade-off between the two mechanisms. Prescriptive on-site compensation occurs in high-cost, high-benefit areas, whereas market-based off-site compensation occurs in low-cost, low-benefit areas. Our analysis also reveals that cost minimization heavily influences the regulator's choice of offset method, while flood control benefits appear to be absent from policy determinations. This finding, combined with the increased adoption of market-based offsets, suggests an overreliance on the market mechanism. Although policy guidelines promote market-based offsets due to their potential for environmental gains, they also require that both costs and benefits be considered in offset method determinations. Our findings indicate that regulatory decisions overlook the flood control benefits of prescriptive on-site compensation, revealing a divergence between policy intent and observed offset decisions.