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- Citizen concerns and acceptance for novel energy technologiesPublication . Emmerich, Philip; Weil, Marcel; Baumann, ManuelThe introduction of new energy technologies in the context of the transformation of energy systems has repeatedly led to acceptance problems. These can have a decisive impact on the success of individual projects or the introduction of entire technologies. Therefore, three new energy technologies have been selected for an acceptance examination of the population: hydrogen filling stations, stationary battery storage systems, and production facilities for biofuels, which will contribute to the decarbonisation of the energy sector in the future. Based on interviews with experts, a survey was developed to: analyse the acceptance based on the citizen concerns for the selected technologies, the attitude towards financial support, the perceived influence on the implementation process, and the current state of knowledge regarding the respective technology. The first analysis points to a certain acceptance of the selected energy technologies among the population in Germany. The work provides a first cornerstone for a more detailed explanation of the acceptance genesis for new energy technologies.
- Networks in Assembly: Investigating Social Factors in Robotic AutomationPublication . Resch, ChristianAutomation will be one of the shaping influences of the coming decades. The increased application of robots in assembly will undoubtedly change these work environments. However, studies which attempt to predict the effect on the labour market resulting from the automation of work processes and the replacement of jobs suffer from overly simplistic dichotomy between routine and non-routine tasks. In contrast, research at the micro-level of the shop floor has shown that even routine tasks draw heavily on informal knowledge and experience. This paper reviews the concepts which describe these work processes and the necessary forms of knowledge and experience. I then argue that the literature on social networks in organisations can provide useful conceptual and methodical tools to investigate how these kinds of knowledge and experience are transferred between workers. Social network research therefore can serve as a way to shed light on the social factors in robotic automation. The paper concludes with the opportunities which the application of network analysis to assembly can provide for social network research itself.
- Energy storage systems in the future German electricity system: A foresight approachPublication . Baumann, Manuel; Moniz, António B.; Weil, MarcelGermany has ambitious targets to produce 35 % of the needed electricity from Renewables mainly based on wind and solar power by 2020 and over 80 % by 2050 within the so called “Energiewende”. Energy storage is seen as a potential option to assure the safe RES system integration to achieve these goals. There is a high uncertainty and the resulting public discourse about the future demand and the most suitable type of storage technology is driving further development of these technologies. A literature review of 9 studies and 10 expert interviews are carried out in line of a foresight exercise on to tackle these uncertainties. The estimations of reviewed studies are based models with a market perspective on energy storage demand. Most model-based scenarios are built on top down logics, where processes at lower levels (technology, micro-economic sphere) are determined by dominant macro dynamics. Different technologies are only considered partially or in an aggregated way. The reviewed studies showed that there is a high potential storage on every time scale starting from the year 2030 to 2040. Analysed potentials vary depending on RES diffusion and excess rate assumptions between 0 to 44 GW. Reviewed studies strongly integrate shared visions about system developments and formal analyses and provide important and valuable information about potential future implications. But they only partially account, due to practical reasons, wider benefits, stakeholder opinions and continuous changes. They account also discontinuities in the technological innovation process of energy storage. Stakeholder interviews provided additional and helpful insights to the literature review. The stakeholders framed alternative potential future developments that could influence the market success and need for energy storage until 2050. Most important factors named where policy measures, new market models and decentralization of the energy system. As in literature there is a big uncertainty among experts about the right storage technology and if energy storage is in general the best option among other measures as grid reinforcement, flexible demand and flexible power plants. It remains impossible to provide suggestions regarding the development of single storage technologies.
- Methods used in future technology analysis and its selection: an application to VTOL transportation systemPublication . Yazan, Abdurrahman M.Change is happening at an ever faster rate today, driven partly by technological changes leading to changes in all other areas of our lives. Today’s global trends, uncertainties, and surprises have the potential to significantly change the way the world works tomorrow. Shaping the world we want to live in means being more aware of the future and seeking better approaches. In such increasingly uncertain environment, planning uncertainties force policy and decision makers to foster future-oriented technology analyses (FTA) by using foresight methodologies. FTA can help us react on the likely directions of technologies, manage the risks involved and shape technological trajectories in order to improve the long term benefits to society. Foresight methodologies seek to gather data and make sense of it so that people can think in different and new ways about the future. That data might be collected from humans or from the analysis of documents and artefacts, or both. The data might be analysed using qualitative or quantitative techniques, or both. To be used in strategy processes, however, data needs to be analysed, interpreted and used in ways that make sense to the organisation. There is no single set of methods used in all foresight activities. The methods used need to reflect the resources available and the objectives of the exercise. The choice of methods is critical, though it often appears to be based upon what is fashionable or which practitioners have experience in. The methods may be organised and interrelated in different ways. In other terms, the conduct of foresight analyses needs to be tailored to the type. The first thing to do is to choose the right methods which are most appropriate to the analysis and technology characteristics. One of the substantial advances has been a move away from a tool or method driven approach to one which relies on the selection of tools in accord with their appropriateness for the particular issue being examined, their relative strengths and limitations. Thus, the experience of observing so many developing nations attempting to conduct a Japanese style Delphi survey, with an extremely limited number of ‘experts’ and doubtful relevance of estimated technology realisation times to their economy, indicates the need to develop foresight appropriate to local conditions. Their use and contribution will be determined primarily by the values, structures and cultures of the organisations applying them. This paper will try to discuss the importance of future oriented technology analysis, in particularly technology foresight, and the question of how to select the best methodology among the existing ones. Although this paper intends to lay a framework and cover the tools used in technology futures analysis, in particularly emerging air transportation technologies, a full understanding of each of these tools is out of this paper. The conduct of analysis needs to be tailored to the type. The first thing to do is to choose the right tools which are most appropriate to the analysis and the technology characteristics. Thus, we have to set the criteria and figure out key aspects and factors for designing our research. In our case, the key aspects and factors are: it is a long term vision for 10-15 years later; an emerging air transportation mode; a socio- technological system of systems in transportation area which is composed of resources and stakeholders network, drivers and disruptors; and also normative, both qualitative and quantitative, national and global. The probably research tools that can be used are; agent based modelling, cost benefit analysis, scenarios, impact analysis, case study (Visioning), subjective judgement, roadmap, interviews, benefit visualization tool, literature reviews, and attending conferences.
- Why intelligent travel system is a good organizing trips tool for Polish tourists?Publication . Jurkiewicz, MonikaWith a growing influence of web applications and social networking sites on every aspect of people's lives travel industry has still not sufficient support from Internet Technology. Increasing travel possibilities and a slow change of lifestyle among young people, they are more focused on entertainment and experiencing something new instead of only making money, that is a good sign for developing tools which might help with organizing spare time. Poland is a growing country. After many years of economic stagnation now there may be observed grow in standards of living and this phenomenon is not decreasing but quite opposite. Young people are more focused on spending their life in more joyful way than their parents did. One of the examples is a travelling.
- Introdução à deep webPublication . Duarte, David; Mealha, TiagoA Deep Web é a parte da Internet que não se encontra registada, não sendo possível acedê-la pelos motores de busca tradicionais. É preciso recorrer a software que permitem preservar a identidade dos utilizadores, como por exemplo o Tor, sendo este o mais conhecido. Conceitos como Deep Web, Darknet e Dark Web são erradamente confundidos, questão que este artigo trata de elucidar. Outra temática que se aborda é a conotação negativa muitas vezes atribuída ao fenómeno da Deep Web. Por salvaguardar o anonimato dos seus utilizadores, muitas pessoas aproveitam para praticar negócios ilícitos, como transação de drogas, armas, etc. É aqui que chegamos ao centro do debate: por um lado o Tor permite, entre outras coisas, assegurar a privacidade das comunicações entre utilizadores e visualizar artigos e blogs que não se encontram na Surface Web; por outro lado o anonimato serve de ferramenta para que ocorra a prática de atividades ilícitas. Existe uma linha muito ténue que separa a esfera pública da esfera privada. O Tor permite reforçar a segurança ao utilizar a Internet. Cabe ao bom senso de cada um a forma como utiliza as ferramentas ao seu dispor.
- Technology assessment in Non-PTA countries: an overview of recent developments in EuropePublication . Boavida, Nuno; Moniz, António B.This work aims to describe the latest developments in European countries or regions that lack a structure to develop Parliamentary Technology Assessment activities (named non-PTA). They are countries or regions where parliamentary-oriented technology assessment activities have not yet resulted in a formal structure, but where these activities can be detected to some extent. We will concentrate on activities in Portugal, Wallonia, and other Central and Eastern countries such as the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Lithuania and Bulgaria. Catalonia is mentioned as a specific case where a formal PTA structure exists but the way it is organized and financed is similar to the national and regional experiences at the non-PTA countries. We can conclude that TA institutionalization in non-PTA countries appears to be dependent on the level of public production of knowledge. In fact, the presence or absence of Science & Technology (S&T) issues on the public agenda of these countries and regions affects the need for parliamentary policy advice: in their presence, S&T agenda pushes the need for TA advice by parliamentarians; in their absence, the promotion of innovation tries to keep up with globalization pressures and to generate economic growth, without significant demands for TA advice.
- Semantic architecture for sensorsPublication . Gião, João; Sarraipa, João; Jardim-Gonçalves, RicardoTechnological progress in recent years and the increase of Internet of things (IoT) in our daily life brought a huge flood of data that can only be handle, processed and exploited in real-time with the help of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). The ICT is one main element in order to achieve more efficient and sustainable an environment resource management, while the needs of the citizens are satisfied, creating new applications to improve citizen’s quality life. The creation of new systems that allow the acquisition of context information, automatically and transparently, and give that information to decision support systems are important aspects for information societies. In this paper it will be presented the usability and importance of sensors to get information from our environment in order to know what and when happen changes around us as well as the importance of ontologies in the structure and organization of the systems, to acquire new knowledge.
- Analysis of a controversial decision process: the case of the pumped hydro storage power plant Atdorf in GermanyPublication . Baumann, ManuelA main problem of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) as solar and wind energy, which represent a main pillar of the German energy transition, is that they cannot supply constant power output leading to an increasing demand of backup technologies as pumped hydro storage. This study analyses in the first part the controversial large scale PHS project Atdorf in Germany. On the one hand this project is seen as a prerequisite for a successful energy system transition by the German government. On the other hand there is also a strong local movement opposing the project mainly due to environmental concerns. It is a difficult tightrope walk to immolate to a certain degree local interests of a few to achieve an ostensible higher goal as a sustainable energy system. Simultaneously an interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) orientated approach was conducted to understand the interest of the multi-stakeholders involved in this controversial case and contributed to the development of the story viewed by the ones living it. The IPA was conducted in detail for the citizen action groug “Bürgerinitiative (BI) Atdorf) and offered the possibility to gather unexpected insight into the entire decision process. The Atdorf project remains in this sense very controversial and unveils several problems allocated to the entire process of the energy transition in Germany. It highlights how large infrastructural energy projects can become complex due to multiple stakeholder perspectives, beliefs and interests. The example of Atdorf was then used as a base to build a hypothesis for a dynamic behaviour model of the ongoing decision process. It could be concluded that the project is stagnating due to uncertain market conditions caused by increasing shares of public financed RES, missing regulation and clear targets in combination with local protests. This general model was used to develop a qualitative system dynamics model, illustrated by a causal loop diagram (CLD). Aim of the CLD was to identify leverage points that lead to incentives for new energy storage technologies and allow the achievement of a renewable energy based electricity system. Three leverage points have been identified; 1) amount of Renewable energy which is influencing almost all other components of the system including markets, need for balancing, investment decisions etc. 2) development and the composition of electricity whole sale markets have to be adopted including EU-Emission trading system to avoid backfire effects; 3) higher level of coordination of energy policies, regulation and related targets to provide a better frame for decisions. The identified points could be confirmed via interviews conducted with experts from energy economics. Most participants concluded that there is a severe market problem at the moment facing a high acceptance problem regarding large pumped hydro storage projects. In general the conducted research helped to gather a better understanding of complex decision making processes and unveiled the importance of right communication within large infrastructural projects as Atdorf.
- Visions on high-speed trains: a methodological analysisPublication . Moretto, Susana Martins; Moniz, António; Robinson, DouglasFuture Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) has been visible in railway planning since 2001. Over a dozen reports have been produced in the past thirteen years, the majority being descriptive endogenous technocentric visions. They have played a role in the revitalization of the sector, predominantly relating to collective alignments and interdependencies in choice and form of the technological path the various stakeholders’ follow to achieve policy goals. A striking example is the case of ERRAC visions, where strategic agendas and roadmaps greatly impacted the high-speed train technology transition from the second to the third generation of vehicles. However, today’s socio-economic events have revealed the limitations of previously applied FTA fall short for railways. In particular, there is an inability to bridge technocentric visions with the societal challenges that are becoming increasingly prominent on the policy agenda. To fill this FTA-need in railways it is here proposed a role for constructive technology assessment as bridging function towards achieving success in the transition to a next generation of high-speed trains. The findings here presented result from the analysis of reports and interviews with their commissioning institutions and drafters.