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Bio-Economic Modelling of Northern Atlantic Bluefin Tuna: Sensitivity and Retrospective Analysis
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Resumo(s)
In the present paper, a sensitivity and retrospective analysis is developed for the Bioeconomic Model of Northern Atlantic Bluefin tuna. A sensitivity analysis of some of the parameters of the model is undertaken for the TAC, the constant effort and the open access cases. Except for the latter, the impact on the optimal value of the variables is examined. In the open access scenario, the analysis is focused on the total net present value of the fisheries and on the moment of total depletion of the stock. The results show that the model is more sensitive to the values of catch-stock elasticity and to the cost estimates. For the specific case of the open access, the change in BFT prices and the values of the market adjustment parameter may also cause a significant impact on the relevant variables. A retrospective analysis is conducted in order to evaluate the forecasting potential of the model. It can be concluded that the model generally forecasts the trends.
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Citação
Brasão, Ana, Pintassilgo, Pedro Costa Duarte, Clara, Bio-Economic Modelling of Northern Atlantic Bluefin Tuna: Sensitivity and Retrospective Analysis (March, 1999). FEUNL Working Paper Series No. 347