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Econometric models for spatio-temporal count data
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Resumo(s)
To contribute to a better understanding of the fundamental process behind the spatial
and temporal correlation as well as to describe the resulted dynamics, sometimes still less
reflected in econometric models, is the aim of this study. It is intended to improve the
development of the necessary economic analysis which allow to optimize management
policies in the most diverse areas of activity, be it hospital, road or other. This work develops
and applies econometric models for count data with dependencies in space and time.
The existing models are often based on the Gaussian assumption, which is sometimes
inadequate. It is interesting to extend it to other types of distributions, generalizing the
applicability of the available models and accompanying this development with estimation
methods that make them useful. Bayesian spatial autoregressive and hierarchical
models are considered as alternatives to the aforementioned models, since they are a valid
and flexible alternative in the modeling of spatial effects. Spatial and spatio-temporal
versions of autoregressive Bayesian models are proposed, establishing the same mathematical
framework for autoregressive and hierarchical models for counting data. This
is an area still underdeveloped within econometrics, given the associated but necessary
complexity, and it is essential to quantify the advantages and disadvantages of its use.
For the proposed methodologies, it is considered its application and implementation, in
several areas of activity with scientific and technological interest, namely in the health
area. In this context, a study of hospital management data is carried out, specifically the
calls for the national health care line, Saúde24, in order to the development of indicators
for decision support, evaluation and implementation of management and government
policies, as well as to the prediction of future behavior under different scenarios. Another
application in the area of road safety is also considered.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Spatial Econometrics Count Data Bayesian Hierarchical Models Bayesian Autoregressive Models Hospital Management