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Descarbonização nos países do sul: as políticas climáticas do Brasil e da Índia
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As alterações climáticas constituem um dos maiores desafios do nosso século, não havendo
grandes dúvidas acerca do seu significado para o futuro da humanidade. Sabe-se atualmente que
o aquecimento global levará a uma subida do nível das águas do mar e a um aumento da
intensidade e frequência de eventos climáticos extremos, com consequências graves em termos
da vida humana.
Em 1992, com a Convenção Quadro das Nações Unidas para as Alterações Climáticas, foi criado
o Regime sobre as Alterações Climáticas para resolver este problema global. A cooperação entre
Estados revelou-se difícil, nomeadamente por dissidências internas entre os Estados
industrializados e os em desenvolvimento, causadas sobretudo por questões de equidade e divisão
de custos, as quais têm impedido um progresso significativo na redução de emissões de gases com
efeito de estufa (GEE) no âmbito do Regime.
Assim, o aparente fracasso daquele Regime faz com que seja necessário encontrar novas formas
de ação. Neste contexto, e tendo em vista avaliar a importância de outros fatores que poderiam
contribuir para a mitigação das emissões além do Regime, queremos neste estudo comparar a
influência relativa entre o Regime das Alterações Climáticas, a Segurança Energética e a Cidade
na adoção de políticas de redução das emissões de GEE. Uma vez que os países emergentes se
incluíam no conjunto dos maiores emissores a nível mundial, tendência que se considerava se
acentuaria no futuro, selecionaram-se como casos de estudo o Brasil e a Índia. O estudo incidiu
na década subsequente à entrada em vigor do Protocolo à Convenção, o Protocolo de Quioto, de
2006 a 2015.
Neste contexto avaliamos em primeiro lugar a eficácia do Regime das Alterações Climáticas na
Índia e no Brasil, com base nas dimensões de “Cumprimento” propostas por Weiss e Jacobson
em 1998, demonstrando que a influência do Regime não terá sido significativa naqueles países na
década em estudo.
Em segundo lugar, foi analisada a forma como a segurança energética poderia afetar a redução
das emissões, considerando-se para isso que o grau de dependência ou autossuficiência em
combustíveis por parte de um Estado poderia levar, eventualmente, à adoção de políticas
energéticas que conduziriam a uma transição para energias de baixo carbono. Esta análise teve
como base as dimensões propostas por Kruyt et al. (2009), e Sovacool e Mukherjee (2011), tendo
como objetivo mostrar que as políticas adotadas por um Estado, tendo em vista a sua segurança
energética, poderiam em simultâneo contribuir para a sua descarbonização.
Em terceiro lugar, foi estudado o papel das cidades na mitigação das emissões dada a sua
importância como fontes de emissão de GEE e enquanto centros de ação para resolução de
problemas usando o conceito de Paradiplomacia. Para isso, foram consideradas duas cidades, São
Paulo e Mumbai, avaliando-se a influência da sua participação em redes transnacionais nas
políticas adotadas a nível local e, em sentido inverso, o seu papel nas tomadas de decisão a nível
internacional. Foram, além disso, avaliadas as ações tomadas a nível local, autonomamente. A
análise teve por objetivo mostrar a importância crescente daquelas cidades na problemática das
alterações climáticas ao longo do tempo.
Os resultados do estudo contribuem para o nosso entendimento da importância relativa de cada
um dos fatores na Índia e no Brasil, e por que razão cada fator tem maior importância em
determinado Estado do que no outro, ajudando-nos a determinar a melhor direção de atuação.
Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of our century and nowadays its implications for the future of mankind are well known. In fact, there are no doubts today that global warming will lead to a progressive rise of the sea level and to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events with severe consequences in terms of life and property. The Climate Change Regime was created in 1992, with the United Nations Framework on Climate Change, to solve this global problem. Unfortunately, cooperation between states proved difficult, namely due to internal disputes between industrialized and developing countries, equity and cost sharing being the main causes, and thus no real progress was made on the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions under the Regime. Due to the failure of the Regime, new kinds of action must then be found. Thus, with the aim of evaluating the importance of other factors that could contribute to emissions mitigation beyond the Regime, we compared the relative influence of the Climate Change Regime, Energy Security and the City in the adoption of GHG emissions reduction politics. As emergent countries are already counted between the biggest emitters in the world, a trend expected to keep in the future, two of them Brazil and India were chosen as case studies. The period studied was the decade that followed the coming into force of the Protocol to the Convention, Kyoto Protocol, from 2006 to 2015. First, we evaluated the Climate Change Regime effectiveness, focusing on regime compliance dimensions drawn from Weiss and Jacobson (1998), in India and Brazil, trying to demonstrate that Regime influence has not been prominent in the decade evaluated. Second, we analysed the way energy security could affect emissions reduction, because the degree of fuel dependency or self-sufficiency of a state can influence the adoption of energy policies leading eventually to a low carbon energy transition. This analysis was grounded on several dimensions drawn from Kruyt, et al (2009) and Sovacool and Mukherjee (2011) work, with the objective of showing that policies designed with the aim of energy security could contribute to the decarbonization of a state. Third we analyzed the role of cities in climate change due to their importance as emitters as well as the best spatial units for problem solving using the concept of Paradiplomacy. For that I chose two cities S. Paulo and Nova Delhi studying local government’s involvement in decision making at international level and the effect that participation in cities networks have at the local level. Finally, I evaluated local government’s autonomous actions relating to climate change. With this analysis I tried to show that the prominence of cities in climate change action has been growing with time. The study results will help us to understand the relative importance of each factor in India and Brazil, and why a certain factor has a bigger influence in a country than in the other allowing us to select the best way to direct our efforts.
Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of our century and nowadays its implications for the future of mankind are well known. In fact, there are no doubts today that global warming will lead to a progressive rise of the sea level and to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events with severe consequences in terms of life and property. The Climate Change Regime was created in 1992, with the United Nations Framework on Climate Change, to solve this global problem. Unfortunately, cooperation between states proved difficult, namely due to internal disputes between industrialized and developing countries, equity and cost sharing being the main causes, and thus no real progress was made on the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions under the Regime. Due to the failure of the Regime, new kinds of action must then be found. Thus, with the aim of evaluating the importance of other factors that could contribute to emissions mitigation beyond the Regime, we compared the relative influence of the Climate Change Regime, Energy Security and the City in the adoption of GHG emissions reduction politics. As emergent countries are already counted between the biggest emitters in the world, a trend expected to keep in the future, two of them Brazil and India were chosen as case studies. The period studied was the decade that followed the coming into force of the Protocol to the Convention, Kyoto Protocol, from 2006 to 2015. First, we evaluated the Climate Change Regime effectiveness, focusing on regime compliance dimensions drawn from Weiss and Jacobson (1998), in India and Brazil, trying to demonstrate that Regime influence has not been prominent in the decade evaluated. Second, we analysed the way energy security could affect emissions reduction, because the degree of fuel dependency or self-sufficiency of a state can influence the adoption of energy policies leading eventually to a low carbon energy transition. This analysis was grounded on several dimensions drawn from Kruyt, et al (2009) and Sovacool and Mukherjee (2011) work, with the objective of showing that policies designed with the aim of energy security could contribute to the decarbonization of a state. Third we analyzed the role of cities in climate change due to their importance as emitters as well as the best spatial units for problem solving using the concept of Paradiplomacy. For that I chose two cities S. Paulo and Nova Delhi studying local government’s involvement in decision making at international level and the effect that participation in cities networks have at the local level. Finally, I evaluated local government’s autonomous actions relating to climate change. With this analysis I tried to show that the prominence of cities in climate change action has been growing with time. The study results will help us to understand the relative importance of each factor in India and Brazil, and why a certain factor has a bigger influence in a country than in the other allowing us to select the best way to direct our efforts.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Descarbonização Países do sul Políticas climáticas do Brasil e da Índia Alterações climáticas, Energia Cidade Políticas climáticas Índia Brasil Climate change Energy City Climate politics India Brazil