Cardio Policy Optimiser

Abstract

Background Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remain a leading cause of mortality in Europe, with atherosclerotic-related conditions accounting for 80% of CVD deaths - a third of them premature. Despite extensive efforts over the past five decades, the decline in these deaths over the last 20-25 years has plateaued, highlighting the need for innovative approaches. Additionally, the co-occurrence of CVDs with other chronic conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, and renal and hepatic diseases, adds complexity to their management and prevention. Methods In Portugal, the pilot phase implemented a novel integrated approach combining a Bayesian epidemiological model - which incorporates genetic, sociodemographic, comorbidity, and lifestyle data - with an adaptive conjoint analysis model focusing on atherosclerosis policy intervention. These models are part of a comprehensive response framework that incorporates health outcomes and associated costs resulting from better prevention and diagnosis. Results Currently in the development and calibration stage, the model is expected to yield initial results by early September. Conclusions This modeling approach offers new opportunities for public health to intervene at early stages in the natural history of CVDs. It emphasizes enhancing prevention and early diagnosis to potentially reduce the incidence of acute episodes and associated mortalities. Moreover, the model facilitates rapid evaluation of the economic benefits derived from preventive policies, thereby supporting more informed public health decision-making. Key messages • The CPO model combines epidemiological and policy models to address cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. • It boosts early diagnosis and prevention, and assesses economic benefits from policies.