Assessing present and future suitability of European cities to the Asian Tiger mosquito, a vector of dengue and Zika

Abstract

The Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is already established in many countries of Europe and cities are particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases. We evaluated the suitability of 62 large urban areas in Europe to the establishment of this mosquito, based on the level of agreement between published predictions of its potential distribution. We classified levels of suitability and uncertainty according to the number of matching models at a 25 km cell size and retrieved the predominant class within the boundaries of each urban area. We analysed 7 independent predictions for current conditions and 5 for future conditions (2050-2080), as well as changes in classes between the two timeframes. Currently, 60% of the cities are suitable to the mosquito, 8% are unsuitable and 32% show high uncertainty. In the future, 87% will be suitable and none will be unsuitable, including cities in the British Isles and Scandinavia, which will have to adapt their public health policies.