Leader-follower dynamics in real historical time

Abstract

The most dramatic changes in modern shipping occurred with the application of new industrial-age technologies to oceanic transportation. In metal-hulled and engine-powered trading platforms, industrial-age steamers (especially tramps and liners) lead to marked increases in the average tonnage of a typical vessel crossing the seas of an expanding global economy. Some of the most important developments had to do with the substitution of traditional wind-driven ships by successive cohorts of vessels exploiting the comparative advantages of mechanization. In this paper, we deploy a set of both established and less-orthodox quantitative approaches to historical commercial shipping time-series so as to model the (complex) relationship between steam and sail performance. We find that, indeed, there is evidence of leader-follower dynamics during the later part of 19th century. This process of ‘creative destruction’ was non-linear.