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Forecasts of relative performance in tournaments: Evidence from the field
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Resumo(s)
This paper uses a field experiment to investigate the quality of individuals’
forecasts of relative performance in tournaments. We ask players in luck-based
(poker) and skill-based (chess) tournaments to make point forecasts of rank. The
main finding of the paper is that players’ forecasts in both types of tournaments
are biased towards overestimation of relative performance. However, the size
of the biases found is not as large as the ones often reported in the psychology
literature. We also find support for the “unskilled and unaware hypothesis” in
chess: high skilled chess players make better forecasts than low skilled chess
players. Finally, we find that chess players’ forecasts of relative performance are not efficient.
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Tournaments Rationality Field experiment