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The Effects of Extreme Weather Disasters in the European Food Availability
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Over the last 20 years, it was reported an increase in worldwide extreme weather disasters (EWD), such
as droughts (+29%), floods (+134%), and extreme temperature (+232%) like heatwaves. While the
mortality rate of these events decreased, EWD are associated with a significant increase in economic
damage and in the number of people affected (> 3 billion). The EWD can significantly impact agriculture
by exacerbating fluctuations in crop yields and, consequently, in food availability and food prices. Thus,
by means of the interconnections of the world food system, EWD have potential to threaten local to
global food security. The challenges for agriculture are not only linked to changes in the long-term
average climate, but particularly to EWD, which are usually more impactful and generally more uncertain.
However, in the occasion of EWD occurrence, national and international disaster loss databases typically
report populations affected and damage to human infrastructure, but rarely report damage or losses in
the agriculture sector. As a result, agricultural impacts associated with these events are not well
quantified across larger spatial scales. In particular, it remains insufficiently understood what are the
trends in crop losses, and what are the implications that EWD may represent to food trade.
The European Union (EU) was chosen as a case study, as it is one of the largest global exporter and
importer of agri-food products, with its food system deeply linked with other regions. Here, disaster
records were used as a metric for extreme weather event impact analysis. Records of droughts,
heatwaves, floods, and cold waves (EM-DAT) were combined with observational agricultural data
(FAOSTAT) to evaluate disasters crop responses in Europe and in its Non-EU food suppliers. A
superposed epoch analysis (SEA) a time series statistical method used in data analysis was used to
estimate the impact of EWD on the average production, yield, and harvested area of selected crops. The
larger implications of disaster impacts in Non-EU food suppliers to the EU food imports, were explored
based on the import share per supplier (EUROSTAT). At the EU level, in addition to the SEA to estimate
crop impacts, the trend of production anomalies was evaluated over time, per disaster type and per
bioclimatic region. The research carried out allows to assess the effects of EWD in the EU food
availability, while expanding the analysis to different crops and geographical regions. In particular, the
exposure of the EU food import dependency to EWD was evaluated, and also the degree of loss in the
EU crop production resulting from the occurrence of such events.
Despite a diversified external market, the EWD impacts on crops grown in Non-EU suppliers represent
a substantial and negative exposure to EU food imports. Production losses of soybeans, tropical fruits,
and cocoa associated to droughts and heatwaves but also floods, lead to an overall decline, up to 16%,
in the EU import-weighted share of each crop. At the EU level, the severity of aggregated heatwave and
drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years. In particular, in every new year
with a drought, the EU cereal production losses increase by 3%. The frequency of droughts, heatwaves,
floods, and cold waves significantly increased over time. Major losses are found for cereals, but also
vegetables and oil crops in the Eastern countries, while smaller losses are estimated in Southern but
also Central European countries. Even though using a weather disaster record for crop impact analyses
has limitations, it offers a unique and standardized metric indicating that, at the EU level, climate change
is already driving increasing crop losses in observational records. Understanding the effects of EWD on
crop responses in the past and present climate contributes to the discussion of strategies and priorities
in view of improving food systems resilience, including on the potential role of trade policies to support
adaptation actions.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Extreme Weather Disasters Historical Impacts Agricultural Crops European Union Non-EU Food Suppliers EU Import Share-Weighted Impacts