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Modelling and analysing the uncertainty in business processes

2026-06-17Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorSong, Rongjia
dc.contributor.authorLuo, Xinggang
dc.contributor.authorLi, Mengwei
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Cong
dc.contributor.institutionNOVA Information Management School (NOVA IMS)
dc.contributor.institutionInformation Management Research Center (MagIC) - NOVA Information Management School
dc.contributor.pblAssociação Portuguesa para o Estudo do Quaternário (APEQ)
dc.date.accessioned2026-03-09T11:38:02Z
dc.date.available2026-03-09T11:38:02Z
dc.date.issued2026-06-17
dc.descriptionSong, R., Luo, X., Li, M., & Liu, C. (2026). Modelling and analysing the uncertainty in business processes: pMeta-BPMN based on probability theory. Business Process Management Journal, 32(4), 1510-1542. https://doi.org/10.1108/BPMJ-09-2025-1429 --- %ABS2%
dc.description.abstractPurpose The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the extant literature about the uncertain process modelling as well as integrated qualitative and quantitative analysis by proposing the pMeta-BPMN method to address the uncertainty in BPM from both workflow and information flow perspectives. Design/methodology/approach Motivated by the strong uncertainty of VUCA world, the probability theory is introduced in the combination of BPMN and Meta graph to mathematically characterize and quantify uncertainty, which gives rise to a novel method by integrating qualitative modelling (via BPMN's symbolic notation) and quantitative analytics (via Meta graph's algebraic framework). Findings The pMeta-BPMN integrates the technical frameworks of BPMN and Meta graph for business process modelling, which combining the respective advantages of the two in activity logic modelling and information element analytics. The proposed pMeta-BPMN method availability helps to model uncertain business processes and analyse the dependency of activities and information involved in order to enhance the process analysis towards uncertainty. A logistic case pilots pMeta-BPMN to illustrate the usability and evaluate the advantage. Originality/value Despite some research that tried to analyse process uncertainty, the extant process analysis methods focus heavily on the qualitative perspective such as pre-defined rules. A holistic method for modelling and analysis of process uncertainty considering both workflow and dataflow is still insufficient for presenting the specific quantitative results of adopting mathematical probability. This paper fills in this gap.en
dc.description.versionauthorsversion
dc.description.versionpublished
dc.format.extent33
dc.format.extent3675520
dc.identifier.doi10.1108/BPMJ-09-2025-1429
dc.identifier.issn1463-7154
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 151941966
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 508eb5ae-9a6e-43dc-8221-74f46274142e
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 105043861904
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 001705260900001
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/201119
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105043861904
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:001705260900001
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.54499/UID/04152/2025
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.54499/UID/PRR/04152/2025
dc.subjectProcess uncertainty
dc.subjectProcess analysis
dc.subjectProcess modelling
dc.subjectBPMN
dc.subjectMeta graph
dc.subjectBusiness and International Management
dc.subjectBusiness, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous)
dc.subjectSDG 9 - Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
dc.titleModelling and analysing the uncertainty in business processesen
dc.title.subtitlepMeta-BPMN based on probability theoryen
dc.typejournal article
degois.publication.firstPage1510
degois.publication.issue4
degois.publication.lastPage1542
degois.publication.titleBusiness Process Management Journal
degois.publication.volume32
dspace.entity.typePublication
rcaap.rightsopenAccess

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