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Potential impact of increasing physical activity on NCD mortality in the EU

2026-05Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorMuhlis, Abdu Nafan Aisul
dc.contributor.authorMahrouseh, Nour
dc.contributor.authorAndrade, Carlos Alexandre Soares
dc.contributor.authorChen-Xu, José
dc.contributor.authorEikemo, Terje Andreas
dc.contributor.authorBalaj, Mirza
dc.contributor.authorEconomou, Mary
dc.contributor.authorMechili, Enkeleint A.
dc.contributor.authorUnim, Brigid
dc.contributor.authorBaravelli, Carl Michael
dc.contributor.authorBadache, Andreea
dc.contributor.authorSpijker, Jeroen
dc.contributor.authorGabrani, Jonila
dc.contributor.authorVieira, Rafael José
dc.contributor.authorLassen, Brian
dc.contributor.authorHaneef, Romana
dc.contributor.authorTecirli, Gülcan
dc.contributor.authorCuschieri, Sarah
dc.contributor.authorRojas-Rueda, David
dc.contributor.authorHoven, Hanno
dc.contributor.authorChamouni, Ghenwa
dc.contributor.authorTarek, Gabriella Laila
dc.contributor.authorVarga, Orsolya
dc.contributor.institutionCentro de Investigação em Saúde Pública (CISP/PHRC)
dc.contributor.institutionComprehensive Health Research Centre (CHRC) - Pólo ENSP
dc.contributor.institutionEscola Nacional de Saúde Pública (ENSP)
dc.contributor.pblBMJ Publishing Group
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-17T08:32:02Z
dc.date.available2026-07-17T08:32:02Z
dc.date.issued2026-05
dc.descriptionPublisher Copyright: © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2026. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ Group. This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.
dc.description.abstractBackground: Physical inactivity affects 36.2% of adults in the European Union (EU), contributing substantially to the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The WHO’s Global Action Plan on Physical Activity 2018–2030 targets a 15% relative reduction in physical inactivity by 2030, supporting Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.4.1 to achieve over 30% reduction in premature NCD mortality. This study estimates the number of averted deaths, premature deaths and cause-specific NCD deaths averted if physical activity targets are achieved across EU countries. Methods: We applied the WHO Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl using baseline physical activity and body mass index from waves 2 and 3 of the European Health Interview Survey. The counterfactual scenario modelled a 15% increase in metabolic equivalent of task hours/week of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and a 15% relative reduction in the proportion of adults who are physically inactive across the EU. Findings: Increased physical activity is associated with an estimated 24 178 premature deaths averted by 2030 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 23 253–25 103), equivalent to 3.3% of premature NCD mortality. Overall, 107 108 deaths (95% UI: 102 479–111 737) across all ages could be prevented, representing 4.7% of total NCD deaths in EU member states. Interpretation: Increasing physical activity alone is unlikely to achieve the SDG 3.4.1 target of reducing premature NCD deaths by 2030. However, when combined with other WHO ‘best buy’ interventions, such as improved diet and reduced tobacco and alcohol use, this target could be attainable across the EU.en
dc.description.versionpublishersversion
dc.description.versionpublished
dc.format.extent535859
dc.identifier.doi10.1136/bmjgh-2025-022998
dc.identifier.issn2059-7908
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 168512039
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 80996bf6-5b0d-4af2-b902-03fa9caeec76
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 105038260956
dc.identifier.otherPubMed: 42097705
dc.identifier.otherPubMedCentral: PMC13157740
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 001762226300001
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/204606
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105038260956
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.subjectEpidemiology
dc.subjectGlobal Health
dc.subjectHealth policy
dc.subjectMathematical modelling
dc.subjectPrevention strategies
dc.subjectHealth Policy
dc.subjectPublic Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
dc.subjectSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
dc.titlePotential impact of increasing physical activity on NCD mortality in the EUen
dc.title.subtitlepathways to SDG 3.4.1 by 2030en
dc.typejournal article
degois.publication.issue5
degois.publication.titleBMJ Global Health
degois.publication.volume11
dspace.entity.typePublication
rcaap.rightsopenAccess

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