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A causal investigation of land use and land cover change on emerging urban heat island footprints in a mid-latitude region

dc.contributor.authorYeboah, Emmanuel
dc.contributor.authorWang, Guojie
dc.contributor.authorHagan, Daniel Fiifi Tawia
dc.contributor.authorShi, Xiao
dc.contributor.authorCabral, Pedro
dc.contributor.authorSarfo, Isaac
dc.contributor.authorAmankwah, Solomon Obiri Yeboah
dc.contributor.authorOkrah, Abraham
dc.contributor.institutionInformation Management Research Center (MagIC) - NOVA Information Management School
dc.contributor.pblSpringer Science Business Media
dc.date.accessioned2026-01-14T15:11:42Z
dc.date.available2026-01-14T15:11:42Z
dc.date.embargoedUntil2026-06-06
dc.date.issued2025-06-06
dc.descriptionYeboah, E., Wang, G., Hagan, D. F. T., Shi, X., Cabral, P., Sarfo, I., Amankwah, S. O. Y., & Okrah, A. (2025). A causal investigation of land use and land cover change on emerging urban heat island footprints in a mid-latitude region. Environment, Development And Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-025-06328-8 --- This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42275028).
dc.description.abstractUrban Heat Islands (UHIs) are increasingly observed in mid-latitude regions due to rapid urbanization, yet the causal impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) on UHI dynamics remains uncertain. This study addresses this gap by employing Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), Landscape metrics (PLAND), Correlation analysis (Pearson’s), Convergence Cross Mapping (CCM) and Geographical CCM (GCCM) to investigate the temporal and spatial causal relationships between LULCC and UHI in Chongqing, China, from 1992 to 2022. Using Landsat TM/ETM +, OLI/TIRS, and ERA5 datasets, we analyzed land cover transformations and their effects on UHI intensity. Results revealed significant land cover changes, including a 2051.84% increase in built-up areas and a 57.17% decline in farmlands and shrubs. Mean temperatures increased from 30.27 °C to 34.17 °C, with UHIs increasing from 0.97 °C to 2.56 °C over the past three decades. The CCM results indicated that built-up areas (ρ = 0.09 ~ 0.98) and bare land (ρ = 0.05 ~ 0.75) exhibited strong positive temporal causal influence on UHI, exacerbating heat retention, while forests, waterbodies, and farmlands & shrubs showed mitigating effects. Spatially, GCCM confirmed these patterns, with built-up and bare land intensifying UHI (ρ = 0.32 ~ 0.63 and ρ = 0.25 ~ 0.42, respectively), whereas vegetation and waterbodies provided cooling. These findings stress the critical role of impervious surfaces and vegetation loss in driving UHI effects. The study highlights the need for targeted urban planning strategies, such as green infrastructure and reflective materials, to mitigate UHI impacts and enhance climate resilience in rapidly urbanizing regions.en
dc.description.versionauthorsversion
dc.description.versionepub_ahead_of_print
dc.format.extent34
dc.format.extent2598128
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10668-025-06328-8
dc.identifier.issn1387-585X
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 119117848
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: c92cc67c-79df-4398-8e21-8c32a3387f93
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 105007314882
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 001504234500001
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0001-8622-6008/work/186551918
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/198917
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105007314882
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:001504234500001
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.subjectChina
dc.subjectConvergence Cross Mapping (CCM)
dc.subjectGeographical Convergence Cross Mapping (GCCM)
dc.subjectLand Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC)
dc.subjectUrban Heat Island (UHI)
dc.subjectUrban Sprawl
dc.subjectGeography, Planning and Development
dc.subjectEconomics and Econometrics
dc.subjectManagement, Monitoring, Policy and Law
dc.subjectSDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities
dc.subjectSDG 13 - Climate Action
dc.subjectSDG 15 - Life on Land
dc.titleA causal investigation of land use and land cover change on emerging urban heat island footprints in a mid-latitude regionen
dc.typejournal article
degois.publication.titleEnvironment, Development And Sustainability
dspace.entity.typePublication
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