Logo do repositório
 
Publicação

Historical variation of IEA energy and CO2 emission projections

2021-07-01Artigo científico Acesso aberto
Ver registo simples
dc.contributor.authorFazendeiro, Luís M.
dc.contributor.authorSimões, Sofia G.
dc.contributor.institutionCENSE - Centro de Investigação em Ambiente e Sustentabilidade
dc.contributor.pblMolecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI)
dc.date.accessioned2022-08-01T22:25:27Z
dc.date.available2022-08-01T22:25:27Z
dc.date.issued2021-07-01
dc.description
dc.description.abstractThe World Energy Outlook reports produced by the International Energy Agency have long been considered the “gold standard” in terms of energy modeling and projecting future trends. It is thus extremely important to assess how well its projections are aligned with sustainable development goals as well as closely tracking observed, historical values. In this work we analyzed thirteen sets of World Energy Outlook projections from the last 25 years. Different scenarios were considered for the following regions and countries: world, OECD, OECD Europe, OECD North America, China, India, Russia, and Africa. The maximum variation between the projections for 2030 CO2 emissions from the energy sector, made between 2006 and 2018 for OECD, Europe and North America were found to be comparable with the gap between the Paris Agreement goals and the voluntary (unconditional) nationally determined contributions to remain below a 2◦C global temperature increase. For the same period, projections for the percentage of renewable electricity exhibited maximum variations between 51% and 96%, signaling a huge underestimation. We discuss the significance of overestimating energy demand and underestimating the rate of renewable energy implementation in the context of 2030 climate and energy policy targets, as well as desirablemethodological changes to energy modeling under aggressive climate mitigation policies.en
dc.description.versionpublishersversion
dc.description.versionpublished
dc.format.extent4258968
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/su13137432
dc.identifier.issn2071-1050
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 45744841
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 1a5bc84d-93c5-4c17-8b1a-d39b4080c7ac
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 85109992545
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000671341200001
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0003-4304-1411/work/116676270
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/142762
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85109992545
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/OE/PD%2FBD%2F128171%2F2016/PT
dc.relationAccelerating he transition: Energy systems modelling under low-carbon policies
dc.relationCenter for Environmental and Sustainability Research
dc.subjectClimate change mitigation
dc.subjectEnergy system modeling
dc.subjectGlobal and regional energy projections
dc.subjectIntegrated energy system planning
dc.subjectNationally determined contributions
dc.subjectGeography, Planning and Development
dc.subjectRenewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
dc.subjectEnvironmental Science (miscellaneous)
dc.subjectEnergy Engineering and Power Technology
dc.subjectManagement, Monitoring, Policy and Law
dc.subjectSDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy
dc.subjectSDG 13 - Climate Action
dc.titleHistorical variation of IEA energy and CO2 emission projectionsen
dc.title.subtitleImplications for future energy modelingen
dc.typejournal article
degois.publication.issue13
degois.publication.titleSustainability
degois.publication.volume13
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardNumberPD/BD/128171/2016
oaire.awardNumberUIDB/04085/2020
oaire.awardTitleAccelerating he transition: Energy systems modelling under low-carbon policies
oaire.awardTitleCenter for Environmental and Sustainability Research
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//PD%2FBD%2F128171%2F2016/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04085%2F2020/PT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccess
relation.isProjectOfPublicationd685383e-e7df-41b8-8a5f-a85c1dcd67fc
relation.isProjectOfPublication1cc967d8-7733-4838-87f1-bf163f81e96d
relation.isProjectOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryd685383e-e7df-41b8-8a5f-a85c1dcd67fc

Ficheiros

Principais
A mostrar 1 - 1 de 1
Miniatura
Nome:
sustainability_13_07432_v2.pdf
Tamanho:
4.06 MB
Formato:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Ver/Abrir

Coleções

FCT: CENSE - Artigos em revista internacional com arbitragem científica