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Understanding and predicting the geographic distributions of phlebotomine sand flies in and around Europe

2025-11Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorCLIMOS data providers
dc.contributor.institutionInstituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical (IHMT)
dc.contributor.institutionGlobal Health and Tropical Medicine (GHTM)
dc.contributor.institutionVector borne diseases and pathogens (VBD)
dc.contributor.institutionLaboratório Associado de Translacção e Inovação para a Saúde Global - LA Real (Pólo IHMT)
dc.contributor.pblSpringer Science and Business Media B.V.
dc.date.accessioned2026-04-22T07:45:01Z
dc.date.available2026-04-22T07:45:01Z
dc.date.issued2025-11
dc.descriptionPublisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2025.
dc.description.abstractClimate and land-use changes influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases by affecting the distribution and survival of disease vectors. Numerous diseases are transmitted by phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), including leishmaniasis. Several major sand fly-borne diseases are responsible for high global disease burdens and high socio-economic costs. In Europe, over 20 known sand fly vector species are largely confined to the Mediterranean Basin, yet records of sand fly presence further north increase. Global warming is predicted to drive the spread of sand flies to large areas of Europe in the 21th century, an effect likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic factors. However, the constraints to the geographic distributions of sand flies are not well understood. This study aims to increase the understanding of the drivers of the geographic distributions of sand flies, using species distribution modelling to systematically test links between sand fly occurrences and climatic, land-use, lithological, biodiversity and human population variables in Europe and adjacent Mediterranean regions. We found that moisture is the most important environmental variable both in explaining and in predicting sand fly occurrences. The projected suitable habitats are larger than the current known sand fly distributions, and these habitats are expected to expand due to changes in climate and land-use.en
dc.description.versionpublishersversion
dc.description.versionpublished
dc.format.extent2560597
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10584-025-04009-z
dc.identifier.issn0165-0009
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 149263565
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: e3647e67-eeec-4131-80f3-467f6cb24345
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 105023372024
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 001608207400001
dc.identifier.otherPubMed: 41209429
dc.identifier.otherPubMedCentral: PMC12589297
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0002-2545-7686/work/212614232
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/202437
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105023372024
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectLand-use
dc.subjectMoisture
dc.subjectPhlebotomine sand fly
dc.subjectSpecies distribution modelling
dc.subjectSuitable habitat
dc.subjectGlobal and Planetary Change
dc.subjectAtmospheric Science
dc.subjectSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
dc.subjectSDG 13 - Climate Action
dc.subjectSDG 15 - Life on Land
dc.titleUnderstanding and predicting the geographic distributions of phlebotomine sand flies in and around Europeen
dc.typejournal article
degois.publication.issue11
degois.publication.titleClimatic Change
degois.publication.volume178
dspace.entity.typePublication
rcaap.rightsopenAccess

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