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Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and immunity waning
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Vaccination strategies to control COVID-19 have been ongoing worldwide since the end of 2020. Understanding their possible effect is key to prevent future disease spread. Using a modelling approach, this study intends to measure the impact of the COVID-19 Portuguese vaccination strategy on the effective reproduction number and explore three scenarios for vaccine effectiveness waning. Namely, the no-immunity-loss, 1-year and 3-years of immunity duration scenarios. We adapted an age-structured SEIR deterministic model and used Portuguese hospitalisation data for the model calibration. Results show that, although the Portuguese vaccination plan had a substantial impact in reducing overall transmission, it might not be sufficient to control disease spread. A significant vaccination coverage of those above 5 years old, a vaccine effectiveness against disease of at least 80% and softer non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask usage and social distancing, would be necessary to control disease spread in the worst scenario considered. The immunity duration scenario of 1-year displays a resurgence of COVID-19 hospitalisations by the end of 2021, the same is observed in 3-year scenario although with a lower magnitude. The no-immunity-loss scenario presents a low increase in hospitalisations. In both the 1-year and 3-year scenarios, a vaccination boost of those above 65 years old would result in a 53% and 38% peak reduction of non-ICU hospitalisations, respectively. These results suggest that NPIs should not be fully phased-out but instead be combined with a fast booster vaccination strategy to reduce healthcare burden.
Descrição
Funding Information: The authors acknowledge financial support from the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia - FCT through project “Projection of the Impact of Non-pharmacological real-time Control and mitigation measures for the COVID-19 epidemic” (COVID-19 in-CTRL) - project n° 692 from the 2nd edition of RESEARCH 4 COVID-19. The first author also acknowledges FCT within the PhD grants program “DOCTORATES 4 COVID-19”, Grant No 2020.10172.BD. The second author also acknowledges FCT within projects UIDB/04621/2020 and UIDP/04621/2020. The third author also acknowledges FCT within the Strategic Project UIDB/00297 /2020 (Centro de Matemática e Aplicações, Universidade Nova de Lisboa ). Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s)
Palavras-chave
Compartmental models COVID-19 Epidemiology SEIR model Vaccination Vaccine effectiveness waning Molecular Medicine General Immunology and Microbiology General Veterinary Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Infectious Diseases SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being