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Imitation dynamics in vaccination under partial and temporary immune protection

dc.contributor.authorDoutor, Paulo
dc.contributor.authorCastelhano, Ricardo
dc.contributor.authordo Céu Soares, Maria
dc.contributor.authorKooi, Bob
dc.contributor.authorPatricio, Paula
dc.contributor.institutionCMA - Centro de Matemática e Aplicações
dc.contributor.institutionDM - Departamento de Matemática
dc.contributor.institutionFaculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia (FCT)
dc.contributor.pblAIMS Press - American Institute of Mathematical Sciences
dc.date.accessioned2026-05-07T13:35:01Z
dc.date.available2026-05-07T13:35:01Z
dc.date.issued2026
dc.description© 2026 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)
dc.description.abstractVaccination has been the most effective strategy to contain and control infectious disease epidemics. Over the past decades, its success and the consequent herd immunity changed public perceptions on the disease and vaccination’s expected costs which, in some cases, resulted in vaccine hesitancy. This work extends the classical SIR model by incorporating both temporary and partial immunity, along with individual vaccination decisions driven by an imitation dynamics approach based on perceived expected costs. Our methodology relied on the stability analysis of the equilibria and the investigation of bifurcation phenomena within the model. To this end, we employed classical local asymptotic techniques, complemented by numerical continuation methods and the computation of Lyapunov exponents. The analysis of the model revealed an interplay between incomplete immune protection and imitation parameters, with rich dynamics involving oscillatory and chaotic behavior for low waning immunity rates and/or high protection against reinfection, and for high social-learning rate. Furthermore, exploring temporary immunity led to the conclusion that for diseases with shorter immunity periods and for vaccines with high relative expected cost, people will rapidly decline any vaccination efforts. These findings emphasize the importance of human behavior for a population in an epidemic landscape, and may provide insight on how to adapt and improve public health interventions.en
dc.description.versionpublishersversion
dc.description.versionpublished
dc.format.extent25
dc.format.extent2479362
dc.identifier.doi10.3934/mbe.2026048
dc.identifier.issn1547-1063
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 160890850
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: e3e835d6-8e43-4b18-8aa8-2757eb541163
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 105034998430
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/202914
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105034998430
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.subjectbifurcation analysis
dc.subjectcomplex dynamics
dc.subjectEpidemiological models
dc.subjectimitation dynamics
dc.subjectLyapunov exponents
dc.subjectsuboptimal immunity
dc.subjectvaccination strategies
dc.subjectGeneral Medicine
dc.subjectModelling and Simulation
dc.subjectGeneral Agricultural and Biological Sciences
dc.subjectComputational Mathematics
dc.subjectApplied Mathematics
dc.subjectSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
dc.titleImitation dynamics in vaccination under partial and temporary immune protectionen
dc.typejournal article
degois.publication.firstPage1315
degois.publication.issue5
degois.publication.lastPage1339
degois.publication.titleMathematical Biosciences and Engineering
degois.publication.volume23
dspace.entity.typePublication
rcaap.rightsopenAccess

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