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Severity of drought and heatwave crop losses tripled over the last five decades in Europe

2021-06Artigo científico Acesso aberto
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dc.contributor.authorBrás, Teresa Armada
dc.contributor.authorSeixas, Júlia
dc.contributor.authorCarvalhais, Nuno
dc.contributor.authorJagermeyr, Jonas
dc.contributor.institutionCENSE - Centro de Investigação em Ambiente e Sustentabilidade
dc.contributor.pblIOP Publishing
dc.date.accessioned2022-10-11T22:20:19Z
dc.date.available2022-10-11T22:20:19Z
dc.date.issued2021-06
dc.descriptionPublisher Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
dc.description.abstractExtreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood - especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD. Using a compositing approach (superposed epoch analysis), we show that historical droughts and heatwaves reduced European cereal yields on average by 9% and 7.3%, respectively, associated with a wide range of responses (inter-quartile range +2% to -23%; +2% to -17%). Non-cereal yields declined by 3.8% and 3.1% during the same set of events. Cold waves led to cereal and non-cereal yield declines by 1.3% and 2.6%, while flood impacts were marginal and not statistically significant. Production losses are largely driven by yield declines, with no significant changes in harvested area. While all four event frequencies significantly increased over time, the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from -2.2% (1964-1990) to -7.3% (1991-2015). Drought-related cereal production losses are shown to intensify by more than 3% yr-1. Both the trend in frequency and severity can possibly be explained by changes in the vulnerability of the exposed system and underlying climate change impacts.en
dc.description.versionpublishersversion
dc.description.versionpublished
dc.format.extent1676994
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1748-9326/abf004
dc.identifier.issn1748-9318
dc.identifier.otherPURE: 45611508
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: e65f97d6-5d96-4b2a-8b3e-4d9ddc50b225
dc.identifier.otherScopus: 85108695810
dc.identifier.otherWOS: 000659670800001
dc.identifier.otherORCID: /0000-0003-0355-0465/work/116400931
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10362/144590
dc.identifier.urlhttps://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85108695810
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.subjectclimate change impacts
dc.subjectcomposite analysis
dc.subjectEuropean agriculture
dc.subjectextreme weather disasters
dc.subjectobservational crop responses
dc.subjectRenewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
dc.subjectGeneral Environmental Science
dc.subjectPublic Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
dc.subjectSDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
dc.subjectSDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy
dc.subjectSDG 13 - Climate Action
dc.titleSeverity of drought and heatwave crop losses tripled over the last five decades in Europeen
dc.typejournal article
degois.publication.issue6
degois.publication.titleEnvironmental Research Letters
degois.publication.volume16
dspace.entity.typePublication
rcaap.rightsopenAccess

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