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Accelerating he transition: Energy systems modelling under low-carbon policies
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Historical variation of IEA energy and CO2 emission projections
Publication . Fazendeiro, Luís M.; Simões, Sofia G.; CENSE - Centro de Investigação em Ambiente e Sustentabilidade; Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI)
The World Energy Outlook reports produced by the International Energy Agency have long been considered the “gold standard” in terms of energy modeling and projecting future trends. It is thus extremely important to assess how well its projections are aligned with sustainable development goals as well as closely tracking observed, historical values. In this work we analyzed thirteen sets of World Energy Outlook projections from the last 25 years. Different scenarios were considered for the following regions and countries: world, OECD, OECD Europe, OECD North America, China, India, Russia, and Africa. The maximum variation between the projections for 2030 CO2 emissions from the energy sector, made between 2006 and 2018 for OECD, Europe and North America were found to be comparable with the gap between the Paris Agreement goals and the voluntary (unconditional) nationally determined contributions to remain below a 2◦C global temperature increase. For the same period, projections for the percentage of renewable electricity exhibited maximum variations between 51% and 96%, signaling a huge underestimation. We discuss the significance of overestimating energy demand and underestimating the rate of renewable energy implementation in the context of 2030 climate and energy policy targets, as well as desirablemethodological changes to energy modeling under aggressive climate mitigation policies.
Accelerating the Transition: Energy systems modelling under low-carbon policies
Publication . Fazendeiro, Luís Alexandre Mendes; Simões, Sofia; Seixas, Maria Júlia
As the dangers of anthropogenic climate change become clearer on an almost daily basis, energy systems
modelling is fast becoming an essential component of modern societies, following a trend which begun some
decades ago. As discussed in the IPCC’s fifth assessment report in 2014, working group III, energy systems
are responsible for the largest portion of greenhouse gas emissions, and have the largest and most cost-
effective potential for climate change mitigation. With this in mind, it is crucial that we have robust energy
models, combining the energy, economy and environment societal components, and that these can provide
us with clear paths towards decarbonization and the accelerated introduction of renewable energy. Some
of the main issues that have been raised in recent years regarding these models include the fact that the
process of decision-making may be extremely hard to capture, and that the models might be skewed towards
favouring already existing infrastructure and models of energy generation and consumption. General
criticisms have also been made towards the underestimation by some of these models of the rate of
implementation of renewable energy. This dissertation investigates this issue, looking at several projections
for renewable energy, including wind and solar power.
In this work, past projections made by energy models used by several entities are analysed, with particular
emphasis on the World Energy Outlook reports, published by the International Energy Agency, and the EU
Reference Scenario, published by the European Commission. In the first case, we look at projections for
total primary energy demand, percentage of renewable energy and carbon dioxide emissions for the energy
sector, for eight different regions: world, OECD, OECD Europe, OECD North America, China, India, Russia
and Africa. When we compare the maximum variation between the projections for 2030 CO2 emissions from
the energy sector, made between 2006 and 2018 for OECD, Europe and North America these were found
to have a magnitude close to the gap between the Paris Agreement goals and the voluntary (unconditional)
nationally determined contributions for 2030. These were submitted with the goal of remaining below a 2ºC
global temperature increase, compared to pre-industrial levels, and the gap is currently around 27%. For
the same period, IEA projections for the percentage of renewable electricity were found to have by far the
largest variations, in all cases signalling a significant underestimation. This seems to indicate that the
transformation in global energy systems required to meet the 2ºC target may well be less challenging than
has been suggested, at least in the case of richer nations.
A similar methodology is then applied for projections made for six EU countries (Portugal, Spain, Greece,
Ireland, Sweden and Germany), with a focus on the percentage of renewable electricity, and total generated
amounts of wind and solar power, as well as CO2 emissions from the energy sector. It was found that the
modelled energy scenarios point towards a slight underestimation of renewable electricity, as well as a slight overestimation of CO2 emissions from the energy sector. In order to better understand how energy modelling
has evolved in the EU, several expert modelers from different countries were interviewed, all with a vast
experience in the field. The interviews helped to identify a few common threads in the field, particularly the
emphasis on the need to have consistent long-term public policies in place, the need for energy modellers
to better communicate their results and assumptions, but also how the drop in solar and wind energy prices
occurred much faster than most modellers had projected.
The thesis ends by discussing some proposals regarding how energy systems modelling can be improved,
so that it may play a larger role towards promoting decarbonization efforts. These include the issues of
improving communication between modellers and stakeholders, as well as with the general public, and of
developing a larger range of scenarios that may account for greater variations within the structure of energy
systems, particularly the analysis of deep, accelerated decarbonization pathways, in line with the range of
emission cuts that recent climate science findings tell us is necessary. These aspects can in turn influence
public opinion and policy making, in a positive feedback which may hopefully lead to greater innovation and
a more sustainable future.
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Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
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PD/BD/128171/2016