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The Spillover Effects of Lisbon’s Gentrification up to 2041: Assessing Demographic Trends in the Setúbal Peninsula Through a Business Intelligence Approach
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Resumo(s)
In the past years, Lisbon has been undergoing an intensive process of gentrification,
contributing to the displacement of long-term residents and increased living costs, generating
a sub-process of the phenomena into the suburban areas, in a cascading effect. This research
aims to understand to what extent are the Lisbon’s gentrification-driven pressures shaping
and influencing the demographic dynamics of the Setúbal Peninsula, and how to strategically
measure and display the region’s key demographic indicators to foresight upcoming
infrastructural pressures. Thus, the research focuses on (1) assessing the current demographic
structure and evolution of the Setúbal Peninsula, analyzing key indicators, (2) defining and
developing KPIs to quantitatively measure structural changes potentially driven by spillover
pressures and (3) conducting a foresight analysis to project the region’s population up to 2041,
considering three different scenarios through the application of the Cohort-Component
Method, aiming to compare possible future demographic shifts and their implications for
regional planning and urban livability. Aiming to accomplish the established goals, the
research follows the Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM), in which an end-to-end
BI solution is designed and developed within the Microsoft Fabric environment, in order to
serve as an analytical tool for supporting data-driven urban planning, displaying meaningful
KPIs regarding the demographic trends in the Setúbal Peninsula, and generating high value by
providing accurate and straightforward answers to the research objectives while also enabling
truthful data-driven decision making in the core of the demographic field. Research findings
suggest that the demographic trends in the Setúbal Peninsula will be showing signs of
deceleration after 2036, representing a saturation of absorptive capacity and growing
infrastructural pressures, highlighting the symptoms of a cascading gentrification effect, with
the Peninsula inheriting the same issues once dominant in the city of Lisbon. It reinforces the
importance of regional urban planning and sustainable urban policies, in order to anticipate
and mitigate these negative and inevitable externalities, ensuring an acceptable level of urban
livability in the affected areas.
Descrição
Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Information Management, specialization in Business Intelligence
Palavras-chave
Gentrification Suburbanization Setúbal Peninsula Demographic Trends Business Intelligence Cohort-Component Method SDG 9 - Industry, innovation and infrastructure SDG 10 - Reduced inequalities SDG 11 - Sustainable cities and communities