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How macroeconomic conditions shape venture capital preferences

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2024_25_Spring_59987_AndreaIntorre.pdf1.86 MBAdobe PDF Ver/Abrir

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This thesis examines how U.S. monetary‐policy surprises influence venture‐capital activity from January 2000 to December 2024. The 30-day Fed‐funds futures shocks are orthogonalized against lagged industrial production and CPI, then decomposed into policy and information shocks via equity-based sign restrictions. Aggregated monthly, these innovations are matched to deal sizes, deal counts, funding stages, and sector allocations for ten VC firms. Static OLS regressions understate the effects, while a VAR(4) reveals front-loaded liquidity responses to rate shocks and “pause-then-play” dynamics following communication shocks. Sector and stage specific response patterns indicate that investment timing reflects both liquidity availability and uncertainty resolution.

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Venture capital Monetary policy Macroeconomic shocks Investment dynamics Capital allocation Policy transmission

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Licença CC