Demographic Analysis to Support Decision Making: The Migration Response to the Demographic Problem in Portugal

Abstract

The project investigated the demographic problem in Portugal and the migration response to that. The study delved into an analysis of Portuguese population changes over the 21st century, highlighting the influence of migration flows on the demographic dynamics. To anticipate future patterns, the project employed a population projection, using the cohort component method, with diverse migration scenarios, offering insights into potential outcomes. The goal of the project was to support decision makers by offering an extent analysis of Portugal demographic challenges, emphasizing the role of migration. The artifact attempted to contribute providing a tool to understand the data around the demographic aging problem and to support the development of future strategies to respond to the Portugal demographic needs. The finding of the project highlights the vital role of migration in mitigating the effects of population aging. Despite the significant demographic aging observed, migration patterns have shown a positive contribution toward stabilizing population trajectory. The projection suggested that only scenarios with high positive level of migration can effectively reduce the consequences of population aging, assuming other key factors remain constant with the following years. For that, the project underscores the importance of proactive migration policies in addressing demographic imbalances and ensuring sustainable population dynamics and a sustainable society. Furthermore, it highlights the importance of complementary policies that work alongside migration strategies.