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Public debt sustainability: a stochastic analysis of Portugal in a post Covid Europe
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
We analyze the vulnerability of the Portuguese Public debt medium term sustainability with
respect to the main Debt determinants that are outside the government’s control by setting a
stochastic environment based on two main sources: European Commission and OECD. The
method to generate random socks and consequently generate a probabilistic forecast is based on
(Berti 2013), which is particularly suitable for forecasting shocks on the non-fiscal public debt
determinants under a no-policy change scenario. Overall little evidence is found to support a
potential unsustainable position in a 5-year period.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Stochastic debt sustainability analysis Uncertainty Inflation surprise Debt-to-Gdp ratio Short term interest rate Long term interest rate Implicit interest rate