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Shock or opportunity? Structural change and employment dynamics around Amazon facilities
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This thesis investigates how the opening of Amazon Fulfillment Center reshapes local economic structures and labor market dynamics within Italian provinces. While the existing literature is mainly based on United States analysis and is divided between positive employment effects and potential crowding out pressures, far less is known about the mechanisms through which large logistics investments operate in European economies, which are more rigid and heterogeneous. To adress this gap, this thesis applies Augmented Synthetic Control Method to a high-frequency quarterly panel combining Movimprese and ISTAT data for the period 2013-2022. The analysis focuses on five provinces in which an FC opened between 2017 and 2020 (Rome, Turin, Vercelli, Rieti and Rovigo) and evaluates both macroeconomic and microeconomic adjustments following the opening of an FC. Four outcomes emerge as robust: the relative weight of digital intensive and real estate activities and wage levels for apprentices and blu collar workers. The results reveal a consistent pattern: Amazon generates meaningful and persistent effects only where the local economy is capable of functioning as a logistics and technological hub. Overall, the finding suggest that Amazon’s impact is neither uniform nor automatic across host territories. Instead, it critically depends on the sectoral composition and structural elasticity of each host province. Based on this, Amazon’s FCs become transformative forces or remain a isolated presences within the local economy.
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Logistics Employment Labor Market Operations Digital Real Estate Blu collar White collar Apprentice Ula Amazon Migration