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Can focused deterrence work in Europe? Quasi-experimental evidence from Malmo
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This paper evaluates whether focused deterrence strategies, as developed in the United States, can effectively reduce gang violence when implemented in European contexts. I examine Sluta Skjut, Sweden’s first Group Violence Intervention (GVI) programme, launched in Malmö in October 2018 to address escalating firearm violence. Using a difference-in-differences design, with municipal-level monthly crime data from 2017 to 2020, I compare municipalities within 60km of Malmö (treated) to those 60–600km away (control). Event study estimates validate parallel pre-treatment trends and reveal no statistically significant reductions in violent crimes, weapons crimes, drug crimes, or a composite gang-related crime index. During the thirteen-month "clean" period before Operation Rimfrost (a parallel police operation), the average treatment effect equals 0.012 standard deviations (95% CI [-0.042, 0.066]), essentially zero and an order
of magnitude smaller than the 0.66 standard deviation reductions typically reported in US evaluations. These null effects prove robust when applied to alternative treatment radii, control group definitions, and mortality outcomes. The findings suggest that institutional constraints specific to the Swedish context, such as voluntary programme participation due to limited coercive powers, strict data protection laws restricting inter-agency coordination, low clearance rates for violent crimes, and more fluid criminal network structures fundamentally undermine the mechanisms through which focused deterrence operates in the United States. The results indicate that simply replicating GVI’s formal architecture is insufficient without the institutional capacity to deliver swift, certain, and coordinated sanctions.
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Focused deterrence Gang violence Policy transfer Sweden Difference-in-differences